Previewing Buffalo

Overview: The Buffalo Bisons have a long and proud history. From Lou Boudreau to Luke Easter, from the 1880s to the 2000s, the Bisons have been there. They weren’t always very good, but they were there. Lately, though, they’ve been quite good, and the owners and fans of the team have come to expect a winner. Since 1995, they haven’t finished below .500. Since moving to the International league in 1998, they’ve won five division titles. However, the last two years the Bisons have missed the playoffs, so there’s a bit of unrest there.

The Indians recognize the pride that Buffalo takes in having a winning team. They often stock Buffalo with a good mix of minor league veterans, major leaguers who are on the way down and younger prospects not quite ready for the majors but who have solved AA. This season is no different.

Most of the “kids” will be discussed later on, so I’ll take some time to mention the veterans, both of the major and minor league variety. Scott Elarton was widely considered to be the last cut from the major league team. A top prospect in the mid-late 90s in the Astros system, he has battled injuries and ineffectiveness (one usually caused the other) since 2001. His best year since came in 2005 as an Indian, before he signed a surreal contract with the Royals (from the Royals perspective.) He is attempting to remarket himself as a reliever.

Jason Tyner is what most prospects who you read about has having great speed, good plate control and good small ball skills grow up to be. When you don’t have any power to speak of, nobody’s afraid to pitch to you. Your ability to get a walk becomes rather meaningless, because there’s no punishment for grooving a fastball. The speed is nice, the small ball skills are nice, and every so often, Ned Coletti gives you a 5 year $44M contract. However, most teams realize you’re nothing but a spare part, and you bounce between the majors and the minors. That doesn’t mean he can’t help Buffalo win, and that’s why the Indians signed him to a minor league contract in the offseason. He’s not likely to ever play for the Indians, unless something goes terribly wrong.

Another interesting minor league veteran is Andy Gonzalez. Gonzalez is an infield utility player, starting as a shortstop, but seeing more time at 2nd and 3rd as he gets older. He had an absolutely torrid spring, hitting four homers. He’s started out hot in Buffalo as well. His minor league track record isn’t laced with power, though, he hasn’t slugged over .400 since rookie ball. What he does give the team, however, is a reasonable OBP. This is his age 26 year, so if he’s going to have a career, he’s going to need another shot at the majors and make a lot more of it than the .180/.280/.249 line he put up with the White Sox last year. He would be able to do everything Jamey Carroll can for a quarter of the price and no commitment.

(As a side note, Jamey Carroll has the following bonuses in his contract, taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the source of most of my salary information: “award bonuses: $25,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove; $50,000 for Silver Slugger; $75,000 for LCS MVP; $0.1M for MVP, WS MVP”. His agent must have really had to work hard for those.)

Best Reason For A Roadtrip: Adam Miller. He’s been well documented in this space and other spaces. He’s starting the season on the disabled list at Buffalo, but will come back as a starter. Despite this, if he’s healthy and effective during the season, he’s likely to be promoted as a reliever for 2008, as Earl Weaver used to do with young Orioles. When CC Sabathia leaves for richer pastures, Miller will be in line to move into the rotation in 2009, hopefully to make the sort of impact that Fausto Carmona did last year.

Likely To Graduate: With the early struggles of Javid Dellichaels, Ben Francisco certainly appears as if he’ll be the first graduate. Granting, it’s a week in, but it’s not like there weren’t concerns about that platoon entering the season. The Indians are not in a position to be terribly patient with a struggling situation. If they continue, by the end of April, Ben Francisco will be promoted. Whether Dellucci will be waived or somebody disabled, or even Marte jettisoned, I’m not sure, but it will happen.

Obviously Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey are candidates for graduation, either to the Indians or to some other major league team offering us a potential solution to, say, the left field situation. If Cliff Lee continues to pitch strongly and the rotation stays healthy, the latter possibility becomes much more likely. In the advent of injury or collapse, the pecking order is likely Laffey then Sowers, although that’s subject to performance as a Bison.

There are a couple of other young players/prospects that may see time in the majors. Josh Barfield is likely to be promoted at some point, whether it’s in the case of injury, ineffectiveness or Barfield’s own excellence in Buffalo early in the season, or whether it’s in September when rosters expand is to be determined. Wyatt Toregas is the next in line should an injury befall Victor Martinez or Kelly Shoppach to the point that one of them needs disabled. Jordan Brown is likely to be promoted if Garko gets hurt, maybe if Hafner goes down, though we could see Francisco then. Brown is not on the 40 man roster, though, so a move would have to be made there.

There are a myriad of possibilities for bullpen spots should, as inevitably happens, ineffectiveness or injury strike. In addition to Elarton, Tom Mastny almost made the team. Edward Mujica could also be promoted, and Tony Sipp, should he return strongly from Tommy John, is a possibility to get the call. Of players not on the 40 man, Brendan Donnelly is also due for a midseason return to health, he has a history of effectiveness at the major league level.

Key Season: Brad Snyder will be 26 in May. He can hit a baseball hard, and he can hit it far. Unfortunately, he can’t do it frequently. Over the past few years he’s taken more walks which gives him a reasonable OBP, but he also strikes out far too often – 91 times in 303 PA in Buffalo in 2007. The player I always considered Snyder similar to is Joe Borchard, though PECOTA prefers Jeromy Burnitz. Borchard’s K/BB ratio was worse than Snyder’s, while Burnitz’ was better. And there’s the difference between being a career minor leaguer and a player who got his first regular playing time at age 28 and still made a lot of money.

On the pitching side, I don’t think any one player has a make or break season, but 2008 is an important season for both Sean Smith and Brian Slocum. Slocum probably has the better chance at major league success, but he’s never really had great stats in the minors. He’s on the 40 man roster, but with the possibility that he could be rather painlessly removed from it. Should that occur, Slocum will need to have shown health and effectiveness in Buffalo to have a reasonable shot at any sort of major league career as a long reliever type. Smith, meanwhile, has put up reasonable numbers in a steady climb up the ladder, while never impressing scouts. His highest career ERA came last season in buffalo when he posted a 4.25 ERA in 133 innings. His numbers are weird, though. He gave up 130 hits, 16 of which were homers, walked 58 and struck out 90, numbers which one would associate with a higher ERA than 4.25. He’s done this throughout his minor league career, which is why stathead types aren’t impressed either. Tellingly, a 23 year old who had some measure of success at AAA who was available in the Rule 5 draft was not selected.