It'll all tie together

On April 15th, Tom Mastny was promoted to the major league team when Joe Borowski was disabled. The next day, he relieved CC Sabathia in the fifth inning of a shellacking at the hands of Detroit, got four outs before having to get relieved. He gave up 2 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs and left with the bases loaded, throwing 49 pitches, less than half of which were strikes.

On April 29th, Mastny came in with 2 outs in the 9th inning of a game that was 2-2 entering the top of the 9th inning. Rafy Betancourt didn't have his stuff, giving up a 3 run home run to Adrian Beltre. Craig Breslow, himself pitching for the first time since April 16th, didn't have his stuff either, giving up four baserunners and recording one out. By the time Mastny took the hill, the score was 7-2, and there were runners on first and second. Mastny induced a ground ball to short that was booted, then recorded a strikeout.

On April 17th, the Indians won 11-1. On April 22nd, the Indians won 15-1. In neither of these games did Mastny (or Breslow) appear. On the 17th, Jensen Lewis, Masa Kobayashi and Rafy Betancourt were used to pitch the last two and a third innings. On the 22nd, Jorge Julio, Jensen Lewis and Rafy Betancourt were used to pitch the last three innings.

The Indians are currently tied for 8th in the league in runs per game at 4.54. If advanced metrics are more your thing, the Indians are 10th in the AL in VORP - Value Over Replacement Player. Basically, the offense is not very good. The Indians are hurt by another tough start from Travis Hafner. The Indians are being hurt by a tough start from Asdrubal Cabrera. The Indians are being hurt by a tough start from Jason Michaels. The Indians are being hurt by a lack of offensive flexibility on the bench.

On an average day, given the 'regular' starting lineup, the bench consists of:

1. Kelly Shoppach, backup catcher.
2. Andy Marte, third baseman. The manager is hesitant to play him, giving him 16 plate appearances in the month of April. He is out of options.
3. Jamey Carroll, utility infielder. Despite hitting just .216 this season, his OBP is a robust .383. Of course, his slugging is only .270.
4. Whichever of Javid Dellichaels isn't starting today. Dellucci is deathly afraid of lefties, while Michaels has been horrible with the stick, hitting at a .207/.258/.276 clip.

That's it. That's the bench. The roster has 12 pitchers, seven of which are relievers, but only five of whom were used in a 12 day period which consisted of two double digit wins. Eric Wedge doesn't even trust two of his relievers to hold a double digit lead.

Meanwhile, during this period, the Indians had to promote Aaron Laffey to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation, and Jeremy Sowers to make a spot start due to a rain induced doubleheader. This led to roster shenanigans, where Westbrook was disabled on Tuesday and Ben Francisco was promoted for a few days. Sowers needed to make his start, so Francisco was shipped out. There was a delay between Sowers and Laffey's start, so Sowers was demoted and Brad Snyder was an Indian. The next day, he wasn't, and that has continued to be the roster since.

In the ninth inning this past Saturday, the day Sowers started, Grady Sizemore turned his ankle. Subsequently, he was unable to play the next two days, as the outfield was Dellucci in left, Franklin Gutierrez in center and Jason Michaels in right against a pair of righties. Sunday, the Indians had Snyder in reserve, Monday they had nobody. The only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is Shin Soo Choo, currently disabled and recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Due to all of these roster maneuvers and MLB's rules, Francisco cannot be promoted again (excepting a player getting disabled) until next Tuesday. Snyder cannot be promoted again until a week from today. That means if an outfielder suffers a slight owie that will rule him out for a few days, the Indians outfield goes back to threadbare status, likely including either Dellucci against a lefty or Michaels against a righty. Just in case you forgot, Francisco led the International League in batting average last year, slugged .500 in the majors last year and went 2-6 with a double this year. You know, he hit the ball.

Obviously the Sizemore injury occurred after Francisco was already sent back down, but why did he need to be? The theory behind the seven relief pitchers is that you can use the back end of the bullpen in games that aren't close, so that you don't burn out your better relievers. Yet, it's been shown that Wedge won't even use Mastny or Breslow in these situations. So send down Mastny, who has an option, and leave Francisco on the team. Or send down Mastny when Laffey needed to start, just to keep Snyder around in case something happened while Sizemore was slowed. This wouldn't even be a panic move, this would be a simple reorganizing of the roster to fit a need that became apparent during the early part of the season that wasn't so apparent in the spring.

Earl Weaver used to say that his backup shortstop was in Rochester. The Indians need to make their seventh reliever in Buffalo, available on short notice in case the bullpen gets burnt through. That's when you send down Francisco.

Borowski

I have more to come about the first game in what might be the most important week of baseball in April for the Indians in some time, but I just wanted to put the following here quickly.

On May 9th, 2006 in Kansas City, Danny Graves relieved Jason Johnson with no out and two men on. The Indians led 6-4 at the time. Graves gave up a homer to John Buck, got a hard ground out from Esteban German, and gave up a roped double to Mark Grudzielanek, and was releived by Scott Sauerbeck.

As Graves walked off the mound that day, I got the feeling that he had thrown his last pitch in the major leagues. I had the same feeling last night.


Afternoon update: Borowski has been placed on the disabled list with a "right triceps strain" which I'm pretty sure is something they came up with to get him off the roster for a while until the real problem is determined and, if possible, fixed. Tom Mastny got the call up.

I really hope that Rafy Betancourt doesn't move into the closer's role. No one else on this team could have done what he did to Ortiz and Ramirez last night.

Indians leaving Buffalo?

In 1995, the Indians ended their relationship with the AAA Charlotte Knights and began one with the Buffalo Bisons. The relationship has worked well on both ends, the Bisons having the most successful period in their history and the Indians enjoying the closer proximity of their AAA affiliate and the support of the Buffalo fans. Buffalo's Opening Day in 1998 marked the announcement of a two year extension to the partnership. That announcement was duplicated in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006. It was not duplicated in 2008.

Obviously, neither side is saying that the lack of an extension marks the definitive end of the relationship. The Indians are praising Buffalo while saying they will wait till the end of the season to make a decision. The comments from Buffalo are much more telling:

We recognize that having a strong Major League partner is important to our success, and we will address our future Major League affiliation at the completion of this season.

Why would the Indians want to leave Buffalo? The answer is that it's not so much that they want to leave Buffalo, but that they want to move into Columbus. The Nationals deal with the Columbus Clippers expires at the end of 2008. Columbus is even closer to Cleveland than Buffalo, something obviously very important to the club. The Clippers will move into brand new Huntington Park in Columbus' growing Arena District in 2009. And, from Columbus' perspective, The Indians are obviously a much more hospitable parent than Washington.

There's more. There's a wealth of Indians fans already in Columbus, but there's about an equal number of Reds fans, and a thriving subset of Yankees fans. Whether the Yankees fans are a byproduct of the Clippers past association with that club or for some other reason, there's a logical theory that the placement of an affiliate in Columbus will help convert some fans, or at the least encourage future Indians fans.

A couple of years ago the Indians radio affiliate in Columbus moved from a smaller station, WMNI 920 to the big sports talk radio station, 1460 WBNS. This is actually a mixed blessing. While Indians coverage and discussion no doubt increased, 1460 is the parent station of a great deal of local sports, which have preference. In the spring, the Columbus Blue Jackets are aired ahead of the Indians. In the Fall, Ohio State football is aired ahead of the Indians. This also includes the Jim Tressel call in show. This past weekend, the men's Final Four was given radio precedence over the Indians. On Tuesday the women's Championship Game was as well.

So while the Indians have a significant presence in Columbus, there's room for more. That's why it's not a case of the Tribe wanting to leave Buffalo, but rather a case of them wanting to move into Columbus.

Previewing Buffalo

Overview: The Buffalo Bisons have a long and proud history. From Lou Boudreau to Luke Easter, from the 1880s to the 2000s, the Bisons have been there. They weren’t always very good, but they were there. Lately, though, they’ve been quite good, and the owners and fans of the team have come to expect a winner. Since 1995, they haven’t finished below .500. Since moving to the International league in 1998, they’ve won five division titles. However, the last two years the Bisons have missed the playoffs, so there’s a bit of unrest there.

The Indians recognize the pride that Buffalo takes in having a winning team. They often stock Buffalo with a good mix of minor league veterans, major leaguers who are on the way down and younger prospects not quite ready for the majors but who have solved AA. This season is no different.

Most of the “kids” will be discussed later on, so I’ll take some time to mention the veterans, both of the major and minor league variety. Scott Elarton was widely considered to be the last cut from the major league team. A top prospect in the mid-late 90s in the Astros system, he has battled injuries and ineffectiveness (one usually caused the other) since 2001. His best year since came in 2005 as an Indian, before he signed a surreal contract with the Royals (from the Royals perspective.) He is attempting to remarket himself as a reliever.

Jason Tyner is what most prospects who you read about has having great speed, good plate control and good small ball skills grow up to be. When you don’t have any power to speak of, nobody’s afraid to pitch to you. Your ability to get a walk becomes rather meaningless, because there’s no punishment for grooving a fastball. The speed is nice, the small ball skills are nice, and every so often, Ned Coletti gives you a 5 year $44M contract. However, most teams realize you’re nothing but a spare part, and you bounce between the majors and the minors. That doesn’t mean he can’t help Buffalo win, and that’s why the Indians signed him to a minor league contract in the offseason. He’s not likely to ever play for the Indians, unless something goes terribly wrong.

Another interesting minor league veteran is Andy Gonzalez. Gonzalez is an infield utility player, starting as a shortstop, but seeing more time at 2nd and 3rd as he gets older. He had an absolutely torrid spring, hitting four homers. He’s started out hot in Buffalo as well. His minor league track record isn’t laced with power, though, he hasn’t slugged over .400 since rookie ball. What he does give the team, however, is a reasonable OBP. This is his age 26 year, so if he’s going to have a career, he’s going to need another shot at the majors and make a lot more of it than the .180/.280/.249 line he put up with the White Sox last year. He would be able to do everything Jamey Carroll can for a quarter of the price and no commitment.

(As a side note, Jamey Carroll has the following bonuses in his contract, taken from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the source of most of my salary information: “award bonuses: $25,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove; $50,000 for Silver Slugger; $75,000 for LCS MVP; $0.1M for MVP, WS MVP”. His agent must have really had to work hard for those.)

Best Reason For A Roadtrip: Adam Miller. He’s been well documented in this space and other spaces. He’s starting the season on the disabled list at Buffalo, but will come back as a starter. Despite this, if he’s healthy and effective during the season, he’s likely to be promoted as a reliever for 2008, as Earl Weaver used to do with young Orioles. When CC Sabathia leaves for richer pastures, Miller will be in line to move into the rotation in 2009, hopefully to make the sort of impact that Fausto Carmona did last year.

Likely To Graduate: With the early struggles of Javid Dellichaels, Ben Francisco certainly appears as if he’ll be the first graduate. Granting, it’s a week in, but it’s not like there weren’t concerns about that platoon entering the season. The Indians are not in a position to be terribly patient with a struggling situation. If they continue, by the end of April, Ben Francisco will be promoted. Whether Dellucci will be waived or somebody disabled, or even Marte jettisoned, I’m not sure, but it will happen.

Obviously Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey are candidates for graduation, either to the Indians or to some other major league team offering us a potential solution to, say, the left field situation. If Cliff Lee continues to pitch strongly and the rotation stays healthy, the latter possibility becomes much more likely. In the advent of injury or collapse, the pecking order is likely Laffey then Sowers, although that’s subject to performance as a Bison.

There are a couple of other young players/prospects that may see time in the majors. Josh Barfield is likely to be promoted at some point, whether it’s in the case of injury, ineffectiveness or Barfield’s own excellence in Buffalo early in the season, or whether it’s in September when rosters expand is to be determined. Wyatt Toregas is the next in line should an injury befall Victor Martinez or Kelly Shoppach to the point that one of them needs disabled. Jordan Brown is likely to be promoted if Garko gets hurt, maybe if Hafner goes down, though we could see Francisco then. Brown is not on the 40 man roster, though, so a move would have to be made there.

There are a myriad of possibilities for bullpen spots should, as inevitably happens, ineffectiveness or injury strike. In addition to Elarton, Tom Mastny almost made the team. Edward Mujica could also be promoted, and Tony Sipp, should he return strongly from Tommy John, is a possibility to get the call. Of players not on the 40 man, Brendan Donnelly is also due for a midseason return to health, he has a history of effectiveness at the major league level.

Key Season: Brad Snyder will be 26 in May. He can hit a baseball hard, and he can hit it far. Unfortunately, he can’t do it frequently. Over the past few years he’s taken more walks which gives him a reasonable OBP, but he also strikes out far too often – 91 times in 303 PA in Buffalo in 2007. The player I always considered Snyder similar to is Joe Borchard, though PECOTA prefers Jeromy Burnitz. Borchard’s K/BB ratio was worse than Snyder’s, while Burnitz’ was better. And there’s the difference between being a career minor leaguer and a player who got his first regular playing time at age 28 and still made a lot of money.

On the pitching side, I don’t think any one player has a make or break season, but 2008 is an important season for both Sean Smith and Brian Slocum. Slocum probably has the better chance at major league success, but he’s never really had great stats in the minors. He’s on the 40 man roster, but with the possibility that he could be rather painlessly removed from it. Should that occur, Slocum will need to have shown health and effectiveness in Buffalo to have a reasonable shot at any sort of major league career as a long reliever type. Smith, meanwhile, has put up reasonable numbers in a steady climb up the ladder, while never impressing scouts. His highest career ERA came last season in buffalo when he posted a 4.25 ERA in 133 innings. His numbers are weird, though. He gave up 130 hits, 16 of which were homers, walked 58 and struck out 90, numbers which one would associate with a higher ERA than 4.25. He’s done this throughout his minor league career, which is why stathead types aren’t impressed either. Tellingly, a 23 year old who had some measure of success at AAA who was available in the Rule 5 draft was not selected.

The Noon First Pitch

These noon starts have always intrigued me. They are almost always in April, May or September, rarely in the "summer" months. What's the point of them? They're referred to as Businessman's Specials for reasons I can't really figure out, since businessmen tend to work at noon. It can't be an attendance stimulant.

In any event, several years ago I came up with a wonderful idea. I came up with it during the time that the Indians were selling out every game, so that it wasn't pertinent to the Indians at that time. However, as things have changed, it is now very much pertinent. To be fair, this might already be going on and I just don't know about it, but I have a hunch I'd have heard something about it if so.

In high school we had a Physics Day at Cedar Point. Our Physics class hopped on a bus, we were given several problems related to the physics of various rides (how fast must the raptor go in order to successfully loop, what is the force on the corkscrew, etc), then we were free to spend the rest of the day being high school kids at Cedar Point. It was usually in May when the park was closed except for the youth of the nation.

I took this idea and adjusted it to these noon starts. They're not very popular to attend - today's game got all of 15 thousand and change. So why not get with local schools and turn the baseball field into a classroom? This could be done at right about the age that students are able to do some work on their own, but still at a young enough age that they'd be impressionable. Fifth or sixth grade tends to stick out to me.

Here's the plan: Students board bus in the morning to arrive at the park by 9:30 or so. They spend an hour or so doing some various problems, math relating to the field, maybe something about baseball's role in American History - the World Wars, Jackie Robinson, that sort of thing. At 10:30, take a half hour to meet with a ball player for a little Q&A session. A starting pitcher who is not going that day would be an excellent choice (Paul Byrd, CC Sabathia etc). Then a final half hour for some science stuff about the field. By this time it's 11:30, feed the kids lunch for a half hour out at the pavilion and watch the game.

The benefits to this are tremendous to all parties. The children get to do something fun and exciting for a change of pace. The teachers get a similar welcome break. I'm sure enough parents can be rounded up to help shepherd the children through the process. The team can use this sort of thing to demonstrate how they're helping the community. And, more practically, if/when the kids have a good time, they'll want to go back. A single positive experience on an impressionable youngster would go a long way towards creating an Indians fan for life.

Opening Day!

Man, I missed baseball.

Some Opening Day notes:

Whoever wrote this: "Jim Thome is still an incredible hitter against righties, but has become nearly impotent against lefties" sure missed the mark Monday. Thome hit two homers off of C.C. Sabathia.

The Victor Martinez injury looked pretty bad, but he seemed to be walking it off fine, and the off day tomorrow will help. I'll admit I was pretty worried initially, because there are two players this team cannot stand an injury to, and Martinez is one of them.

The Indians sure did seem to get every close call in their favor. As a Cleveland fan, I can attest to the rarity of having that happen, but I'll certainly take it. Cleveland teams have been owed more than a few over the past many, many years.

Sample Size comments: Good to see Casey Blake come through in the clutch. Over the past couple of years he'd really struggled in those opportunities. I realize it's one game, but is it too early to be a little worried about Jensen Lewis? Lewis' velocity was down all spring, and he didn't look terribly good Monday.

I can't help but dig the old school uniforms. I tend to enjoy any cap that doesn't have Chief Wahoo on it - my favorite cap had been the one with the script I. I have one of those that no longer fits my Bondsianly (wow, that's an impressive made up adverb) swelling head. Apparently, these throwbacks are the new home alternates, although I really liked the previous alternates, which were the vests.

Within the next week or so I'll have previews of the Indians minor league affiliates, as well as some thoughts on the rest of baseball, although understandably not as focused as my mini-previews were on the AL Central teams.

Know thy foes - the Royals

Last Season: 69-93, 5th place

Short Term Outlook: Should crack 70 wins for the first time since 2003. Baby steps.

Long Term Outlook: The southernmost team in the AL Central should rise again shortly.

Who is new? Trey Hillman, the new manager, is certainly a different type of manager than the Royals have hired recently. The previous two managers were both questionable decisions for completely different reasons. Tony Pena had no previous managerial experience, and was hired only five years after he retired. Buddy Bell, on the other hand, has had a solid history of teams that were perceived to underperform. Hillman, meanwhile, was a successful manager in Japan, and now comes back stateside to lead the Royals into the future as a contender.

One of the benefits of having a manager who has close ties with a talent pool such as Japan is that it makes it easier to assess, sign and integrate that talent. That’s the case with Yasuhiko Yabuta, an experienced Japanese reliever who signed a 2 year deal with the Royals for a reasonable $6M. This is the second year in a row the Royals were able to find international talent at a reasonable price, after picking Joakim Soria in the 2007 Rule 5 draft on the strength of a fine year in Mexico. The Royals can only hope that Yabuta is as successful as Soria was.

Jose Guillen is the other major addition to the Royals, signed to be their every day right fielder, a curious signing. For the amount of money (3 years, $36M), you’d have expected the Royals to be picking up a world beater, but Guillen is a notoriously cranky clubhouse presence who is prone to pouting his way through a season. The Royals obviously hope that this contract means he’ll be happy, keep to himself and produce, but it’s a significant risk.

Lesser acquisitions include Ron Mahay, Brett Tomko and Alberto Callaspo, a utility infielder who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for prospect Billy Buckner.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: 2008 is an important season for Luke Hochevar, the number 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft. A difficult 2007 has seen him passed by several pitchers drafted below him, guys like Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. Hochevar was drafted first because he was seen as both a potential top of the rotation guy and close to the majors, but his performances thus far haven’t been indicative of the former, and he’s not yet a rotation regular. He’ll start in AAA Omaha with eyes towards a midseason promotion.

Another player to keep an eye on is Mike Stodolka. The fourth overall pick in the 2000 draft as a pitcher, Stodolka battled injuries and an inability to crack 90 MPH and never made it to AAA; his career marks at AA include a 5.92 ERA and a 4-11 record. However, in 2006 he became the first baseman on the Royals’ California League affiliate, High Desert, where he put up decent numbers. Stodolka then went on to prove that those numbers weren’t a fluke, putting up a .291/.409/.462 season at AA Wichita.

There are a few things here. You can point to Stodolka’s age, 25, and say that his numbers at Wichita really aren’t all that impressive because of it. This is not terribly true, as Stodolka wasn’t a hitter for five seasons and it’s reasonable to consider his stats the equivalent of those of a 23 year old. Another criticism is that Stodolka hasn’t shown the power you’d like from a first baseman, and this is more valid. You’d certainly want to see him increase his home runs from 12 in 460 PAs at the next level. But there’s talent there, and there’s reason to root for him. Aside from Rick Ankiel, the ability to go from pitching flameout to making the majors as a hitter is stunningly rare. So keep an eye on the Omaha stats and see how he’s doing.

My Take: The White Sox and the Twins seem on the road to a long rebuilding process. The Indians are about to lose their best pitcher, and their minor league system seems to be filled with players that don’t appear likely to be stars. There’s still a good amount of talent in the Indians system though, and reasonably priced that they should remain a strong team capable of winning 87+ wins annually. The Tigers have an awful lot of old players and only one minor leaguer of note. While the Tigers have a solid core of young players in Verlander, Bonderman, Granderson, and recently added Cabrera and Willis, the rest of their top players will be in their mid 30s by 2010.

The Tigers could probably now be considered to be a so-called big market team. Since 2004 their payroll has increased from $47M to $95M, and will almost certainly exceed $100M in 2008. It’s reasonable to expect owner Mike Ilitch to permit GM Dave Dombrowski to sign free agents to fill the void left by aging and out of contract players. However, the players they currently have under contract for 2010 are already quite expensive:



This doesn’t include Justin Verlander, who will be in his last year of arbitration eligibility. Conservatively assuming that Verlander continues to be an ace pitcher and will earn at least $5M, the Tigers have ten players who collectively are making over $100M. The lack of depth in the Tigers system means that the cheap fill ins might be harder to come by over the next couple of seasons. Therefore, Dombrowski might not be able to sign his way rebuilding his club.

Why am I going on in such detail about the Tigers in the Royals comment? Because it means that the Royals have an opportunity to step in and fill the void as a primary challenger to the AL Central. While the Twins do not have a great deal of depth in their minor league system, they have recently graduated a number of young players who look like major contributors to the majors. They do have a potential stud in the minor league system in Mike Moustakas, but he might not be ready by 2010. They have two potential front line starters in Hochevar and Daniel Cortes. However, they need to do a better job of developing lower picks into contributors at the major league level. The Royals will probably never be able to outspend the Tigers or White Sox, so these players need to fill utility roles and bullpen positions cheaply and reasonably effectively.

Another source of concern for the Royals is that GM Dayton Moore needs to do a better job of managing the major league team financially. A key to success financially for the Royals is flexibility. The decision to sign Guillen is questionable at best not only for the reasons listed above, but he’ll still be owed $12M in 2010. This may hinder the Royals ability to sign a key player in 2009 or 2010 when they’ll be much closer to contention than in 2008. Moore should look to lock up young, developing talents like Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Zack Greinke to long term deals, not older players in decline like Jose Guillen.

A better example of a signing that makes sense this offseason is Moore’s decision to sign Brett Tomko. Friendly to the club in both cost and length (1 year, $3M), Tomko can start the year in the rotation while Hochevar readies himself at Omaha. If all goes well, Tomko can post a 4.75 ERA and be flipped at the trade deadline for a player the Royals are lacking – that cheap player who fills out a squad competently.

Moore needs to do a better job of making the ultimate decision on a player like Alex Gordon. There was no reason for Gordon to spend the entire 2007 season in the majors. It accelerated his arbitration clock, it accelerated his free agency arrival. Gordon should have started the year at Wichita, then been promoted in May or June, a strategy taken with Billy Butler. Once Gordon struggled through the first two months, hitting under .200, he should have been sent down then. While it is admirable that the club stood by their prospect, it would be a whole lot better to have him under their control for an additional year. Two months without Gordon may have been costly to the Royals if they were contenders in 2007, but they weren’t, and Moore needs to realize this going forward.

Key Player: David DeJesus needs to demonstrate that his age 27 slump in 2007 was not a signal of declining skills. He was healthy for a full season for the first time, but put up career lows in batting average, OBP and slugging, while posting career highs in walks and strikeouts. Those are very dangerous signs.

Prediction: The Royals are a year or two away. Despite the somewhat harsh comments towards Moore above, it’s clear that he’s a far better fit for the Royals than his Allard Baird was. If nothing else, he’s given Royals fans hope, and there appears to be a bright light at the end of the tunnel for them. There’s the potential that this team could finish 3rd in the AL Central, but I think they’ll fall just short, but will approach 75 wins, which would represent a significant step forward for the franchise.

Know thy foes - the White Sox

Last Season: 72-90, 4th place

Short Term Outlook: 2007 was seen as a massively disappointing season by White Sox fans, but most independent observers saw them as clear underdogs in the Central. However, 2008 will almost certainly be better.

Long Term Outlook: Way, way down.

Who is new? Nick Swisher is the best player acquired in the offseason by the White Sox, and will be their left fielder. Alexei Ramirez is a Cuban who is in his late 20s, give or take. Ramirez can play in several positions, depending on Ozzie Guillen’s whims. He may start in center, he may be a super utility player. Backing up in the outfield will be former elite prospect Carlos Quentin, who proved a disappointment in Arizona. The White Sox seemed to finally got sick of Juan Uribe’s complete inability to reach base, and thus traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. In the bullpen, oft injured Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink were signed to luxurious free agent contracts.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: There is absolutely nobody left in this system. Top prospects Gio Gonzalez and Fautino de los Santos were included in the Swisher trade, as was the disappointing Ryan Sweeney. The White Sox have been picking towards the bottom of the first round recently, selecting pitchers with limited upside the past 3 seasons. I guess, if forced to choose a single player, I’ll go ahead and list CF John Shelby Jr. He’s not an elite prospect by any means, but he’s the son of a major leaguer, and hit well as an old 21 year old in the Sally League. He will probably start at Hi-A Winston-Salem, and may be pushed to AA Birmingham in this thin system.

My Take: Kenny Williams has often been the butt of insults for the more statistically inclined baseball fans. He was a primary villain in Moneyball. He has, in the past, seemed to change strategies on a yearly basis. Despite that fact, he was the general manager of the 2005 World Champions. Williams put together an outstanding pitching staff supported by a bullpen that saw five pitchers have their best seasons. Williams has been put into an awkward position in 2008 because of that championship in 2005.

White Sox fans have always had a bit of an inferiority complex, and reasonably so. Chicago is a Cubs town, always has been and always will be. However, in 2005 the Cubs slumped to a disappointing 79-83 while the White Sox were winning their first championship since 1917. For the first time in years, Chicago became a borderline White Sox city. This held through 2006 when the White Sox still won 91 games while the Cubs dropped to 66-96. White Sox fans were enjoying the spotlight. However, 2007 saw things return to normalcy, both in the public and on the field. The White Sox dropped to 72 wins while the Cubs won the NL Central and returned to the dominant team in the press and public.

As a result, Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to make one last glorious attempt to reclaim the city. They traded their top two prospects for Swisher. They traded a key starter for a much needed upgrade at shortstop. However, behind solid pitchers Mark Buehrle and Javy Vazquez, this leaves only highly flammable options to fill out the rotation. To start the season, John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd will be in the rotation; don’t be surprised to see other likely strugglers in Lance Broadway, Jack Egbert or Charlie Haeger this season.

Beyond the flammable rotation, Williams spent $30M on a combined six seasons of Dotel and Linebrink. Linebrink was signed for 4 years, $19M and was given a no trade clause of unknown scope. He was traded by a contender in 2007, a statement which is harsher than reality. His ERA was only 3.71 last year, but it has jumped by a run and a half since his back to back 2.14 and 1.83 ERA seasons in 2004-5, and his strikeouts have gone way down. He will be 32. Dotel will be 34 in 2008. He was signed for 2 years and $11M. Dotel has pitched 61 innings in the past 3 seasons. Combined.

In the lineup, picking up Swisher was an excellent move for the White Sox. He has very much a flyball swing, an asset at home run happy US Cellular Field. Ramirez can also be an asset, assuming he’s closer to 28 than 32. In Cuba he was a shortstop, but he’s played a variety of up the middle positions this spring for the White Sox. He’s been mentioned as a potential second baseman, but will likely wind up in center. The trouble with this is that if Ramirez starts in center, the previously shunted Uribe will be the starting second baseman as Danny Richar has been both knocked up and unimpressive. If Ramirez is at second, scrappy but ineffective Jerry Owens is in center. Either way, there’s an offensive hole involved.

The same cannot be said for resigning Joe Crede. A player who is entering his 30s, who just lost over 2/3 of a season to a bad back is not worth resigning when you already have a younger, better, and cheaper player at his position (Josh Fields.) And resigning that player for $5M is simply lunacy. Injury prone redundancy will get you nowhere.

The rest of the White Sox core remains in place, which is a mixed bag. Jermaine Dye is 34; his OPSes the last 4 years have been .793, .845, 1.007 and .803. Jim Thome is still an incredible hitter against righties, but has become nearly impotent against lefties. Paul Konerko is a candidate for collapse – PECOTA pegs that likelihood at 29%, a number which looks good next to AJ Pierzynski’s 42%, just in time for his 3 year, $18M extension.

Key Player: I’ll go ahead and say it’s the back end of the rotation. Floyd had the best ERA of the bunch last year at 5.27. At least he and Danks have youth on their side; Floyd is 25, Danks will be 23 on Tax Day. Contreras is of unknown age – like most Cubans, he’s suspected to be older than the age he lets on (which is 36.) Both Floyd and Danks were top prospects just a couple of years ago, but both have struggled in the upper levels of the minor leagues, not to mention the majors. If at least two of these three step up, the White Sox should have a very good rotation able to cover for potential crisis in the pen and decay at the bat.

Prediction: I don’t think that will happen, though. There’s potential for a massive collapse here, and if it doesn’t happen in 2008 it will happen by 2010. For this season, I do think they’ll improve slightly on 2007, but the White Sox don’t look like anything more than a 77 win team to me.

Know thy foes - the Twins

Last Season: 79-83, 3rd place

Short Term Outlook: Well down.

Long Term Outlook: The minor league cupboard is pretty bare, too.

Who is new? The gaping hole in the rotation. As far as new players go, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be 2/3 of the starting outfield, while Brendan Harris, Adam Everett, and Mike Lamb compose 3/4 of the starting infield. Livan Hernandez and Nick Blackburn are the new starters, while Francisco Liriano will return from missing 2007 with Tommy John before long.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: The three players acquired in the Santana trade that will be starting in the minor leagues. Carlos Gomez will be starting in center for Minnesota, but Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey will all be in the minors to start the season. Guerra is a 19 year old hard throwing pitcher who will probably start in AA New Britain, while Humber and Mulvey are projected back-of-the-rotation starters who will begin the season at AAA Rochester.

My Take: New General Manager Bill Smith has had a terrible start in his new position. In an offseason where everybody knew he was going to trade his top asset, he somehow minimized the return. Early in December, names such as Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes were mentioned in conjunction with Santana, but Smith delayed on pulling the trigger, holding out for more. Instead, both the Yankees and the Red Sox figured out that the other wasn’t going to make the move for Santana, and the market shriveled up, and Smith wound up trading Santana to the Mets for four prospects, not including their best prospect, Fernando Martinez.

Compounding this error, Smith has then followed up by spending a great deal of money on lesser players. Joe Nathan, the closer on what is shaping up to be a bad team, was signed to a 4 years, $47 million extension. Michael Cuddyer, a right fielder with one season with an OPS over .800, was extended for 3 years and $24 million. Livan Hernandez was signed for one season at $5M, while Craig Monroe was signed for one season at $3.8M in order to avoid arbitration. Mike Lamb, a 32 year old part time player, was signed for 2 years, $6.6M.

In the midst of this madness, Justin Morneau was reasonably signed to an extension as well, while Adam Everett was signed to play short. Everett cannot hit the ball, but is an excellent defensive player, the sort of player to bring in if you’re developing a young pitching staff.

The Twins are clearly rebuilding for at least this season, and probably the next couple. There’s no reason to bring in guys like Hernandez or Monroe (who won’t even start). Mike Lamb isn’t the worst idea in the world, since the Twins don’t have a ready player for third base, but he’s a part time player, which will just encourage Nick Punto to play more often. The signings of Nathan and Cuddyer are baffling. Cuddyer is the sort of player you try to move in the Twins current state of rebuild, not keep around. With a $24M albatross hanging over his head, he’ll be difficult to move during the season. The same goes for Nathan, who’ll be 36 at the end of his extension. An elite closer is a luxury a rebuilding team cannot afford. Nathan has been incredible, but he’ll be very difficult to move in the next two or three seasons, by which point his skills may have declined and his contract no longer reasonable.

Smith’s other big trade of the offseason is an interesting trade that boils down to a challenge: Matt Garza for Delmon Young. It’s a telling statement that a player who was considered a top 2 prospect for the last 2 seasons was willing to be traded, and not for a ready star, but for another young player. He’ll be in left field every day hoping to turn his tools into skills. One hindrance is that the Twins organization is not known for helping players working on plate discipline, which is Young’s greatest weakness – he walked 26 times in 681 plate appearances last year.

Key Player: Joe Mauer. The whispers that he won’t be able to stay at catcher are getting louder. Mauer is 6’5”, a height matched only by one regular catcher – Sandy Alomar Jr. Alomar had cranky knees throughout his career. Mauer missed a chunk of 2007 with leg issues extending into his quadriceps muscle. He also had a significant drop off from his incredible 2006 season. He was reportedly taking grounders at third base during spring training.

This season is key for him. Will he stay healthy enough to give the Twins faith that he’ll be able to remain a catcher? Will he hit enough to be a star at third, too? Or will neither of these come true, and Mauer continues as an injury prone catcher or becomes an unspectacular third baseman?

Prediction: There’s enough talent here that the Twins won’t be truly bad, but it’s misplaced talent. Not knowing what the public backlash would be, it’s easy to say from the outside that they’d have done better to blow the whole thing up, moving Nathan and Cuddyer along with Santana. They look like a 75 win team to me, which will probably be a 4th place finish in the AL Central.

Know thy foes - the Tigers

Last Season: 88-74, 2nd place

Short Term Outlook: Predicted by many to improve to at least 95 wins, but it might not be that simple.

Long Term Outlook: They’ve added a big piece of the long term puzzle in Miguel Cabrera, but aside from one elite prospect in Rick Porcello, the minor league cupboard is bare.

Who is new? You may have heard about the high profile additions the Tigers made in the offseason. Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones were all traded for. The bullpen also has a new face in Denny Bautista.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: Rick Porcello was the Tigers first round pick in 2007. Seen as possibly the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello dropped all the way to 27th because Scott Boras informed teams that Porcello would require Beckett money to sign, adjusted for inflation. These demands, coupled with the majority of teams wanting to keep in line with MLB’s recommended bonuses caused teams to pass on Porcello. The Tigers jumped at the chance to get an elite talent so far down in the draft. He’s likely to start in the Midwest League at West Michigan.

My Take: I’ve heard all sorts of comments that the Tigers could be the first team since the 1999 Indians to score 1000 runs in a season. It’s not going to happen. That Indians team had a .372 OBP while slugging .467. The Tigers last year had a .345 OBP, slugged .458 and only scored 887 runs. Yes, they added an outstanding hitter in Miguel Cabrera, but other players are in line to have worse years than they did last year. Ivan Rodriguez is in perpetual decline, Gary Sheffield is 39, Magglio Ordonez won’t repeat his career year and Placido Polanco won’t either.

The other two new players, Renteria and Jones will struggle to add to the offense. Renteria’s OPS the last 4 seasons are .728, .720, .797 and .860. Which one of those is most out of line? Jacque Jones OPS the last 4 seasons are .742, .757, .833 and .735. Which one of those is most out of line? If the Tigers are expecting the 2007 Renteria and the 2006 Jones, they’re in for a rude awakening. On this evidence, the Tigers may be hard pressed to score 900 runs.

The Tigers will need their lineup to score a lot of runs, because their pitching is a huge question mark entering the season. Justin Verlander is a Cy Young winner in waiting at the head of the rotation, but behind him are a series of question marks. Kenny Rogers is about 55 years old and coming off circulation and elbow issues. Jeremy Bonderman is coming off an injury plagued second half of the season in which he again was below average. Bonderman has all the talent in the world, but he’s posted one season with an ERA below 4.50. Nate Robertson is the Tigers’ Jake Westbrook.

The Tigers will need to strike lucky to get good performances out of the bullpen. Their two best relievers, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney will be out for a while. Todd Jones, the closer, joins Joe Borowski in perpetually walking a tightrope. Bobby Seay seems to be a solid option as a lefty, but other than that, the Tigers are going to hope for quite a few of those miracle seasons in relief out of a number of pitchers who are a mix of talented but unreliable, ‘gamers’ who don’t have much in the way of ‘stuff’, or are oft injured. That’s an awful lot of question marks to fill in.

As you have probably perceived by the above, there’s not a lot of depth in the system. Brandon Inge figures to be an unhappy utility player, filling in all over the field, but he’s now 31 and in decline since he was 27. Marcus Thames will probably be Jacque Jones platoon partner in left field.

Key Player: Dontrelle Willis. In 2005, Willis was the talk of the majors, going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA in 236 innings as a 23 year old. He walked 55, hit 8 and struck out 170, a 2.7:1 K/BB+HBP ratio. The next year, his ERA only increased to 3.87, but his other numbers began to collapse. He allowed almost twice as many homers in 13 fewer innings, struck out 160, walked 83 and hit 19, dropping his K/BB+HBP ratio to 1.7:1. Those numbers cratered even further in 2007. In 18 fewer innings he allowed 1 fewer free runner, and struck out 14 fewer batters, while allowing even more home runs and an ERA over 5 in a pitcher’s park.

Prediction: Can the Tigers sort out Dontrelle Willis? If they fix him to a 4.25 ERA, the Tigers have another top 3 starter (assuming Bonderman also follows suit), and the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite. I just don’t see it happening. I think the Tigers will finish behind the Indians, somewhere in the neighborhood of 89-73.