Know thy foes - the Tigers

Last Season: 88-74, 2nd place

Short Term Outlook: Predicted by many to improve to at least 95 wins, but it might not be that simple.

Long Term Outlook: They’ve added a big piece of the long term puzzle in Miguel Cabrera, but aside from one elite prospect in Rick Porcello, the minor league cupboard is bare.

Who is new? You may have heard about the high profile additions the Tigers made in the offseason. Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones were all traded for. The bullpen also has a new face in Denny Bautista.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: Rick Porcello was the Tigers first round pick in 2007. Seen as possibly the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello dropped all the way to 27th because Scott Boras informed teams that Porcello would require Beckett money to sign, adjusted for inflation. These demands, coupled with the majority of teams wanting to keep in line with MLB’s recommended bonuses caused teams to pass on Porcello. The Tigers jumped at the chance to get an elite talent so far down in the draft. He’s likely to start in the Midwest League at West Michigan.

My Take: I’ve heard all sorts of comments that the Tigers could be the first team since the 1999 Indians to score 1000 runs in a season. It’s not going to happen. That Indians team had a .372 OBP while slugging .467. The Tigers last year had a .345 OBP, slugged .458 and only scored 887 runs. Yes, they added an outstanding hitter in Miguel Cabrera, but other players are in line to have worse years than they did last year. Ivan Rodriguez is in perpetual decline, Gary Sheffield is 39, Magglio Ordonez won’t repeat his career year and Placido Polanco won’t either.

The other two new players, Renteria and Jones will struggle to add to the offense. Renteria’s OPS the last 4 seasons are .728, .720, .797 and .860. Which one of those is most out of line? Jacque Jones OPS the last 4 seasons are .742, .757, .833 and .735. Which one of those is most out of line? If the Tigers are expecting the 2007 Renteria and the 2006 Jones, they’re in for a rude awakening. On this evidence, the Tigers may be hard pressed to score 900 runs.

The Tigers will need their lineup to score a lot of runs, because their pitching is a huge question mark entering the season. Justin Verlander is a Cy Young winner in waiting at the head of the rotation, but behind him are a series of question marks. Kenny Rogers is about 55 years old and coming off circulation and elbow issues. Jeremy Bonderman is coming off an injury plagued second half of the season in which he again was below average. Bonderman has all the talent in the world, but he’s posted one season with an ERA below 4.50. Nate Robertson is the Tigers’ Jake Westbrook.

The Tigers will need to strike lucky to get good performances out of the bullpen. Their two best relievers, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney will be out for a while. Todd Jones, the closer, joins Joe Borowski in perpetually walking a tightrope. Bobby Seay seems to be a solid option as a lefty, but other than that, the Tigers are going to hope for quite a few of those miracle seasons in relief out of a number of pitchers who are a mix of talented but unreliable, ‘gamers’ who don’t have much in the way of ‘stuff’, or are oft injured. That’s an awful lot of question marks to fill in.

As you have probably perceived by the above, there’s not a lot of depth in the system. Brandon Inge figures to be an unhappy utility player, filling in all over the field, but he’s now 31 and in decline since he was 27. Marcus Thames will probably be Jacque Jones platoon partner in left field.

Key Player: Dontrelle Willis. In 2005, Willis was the talk of the majors, going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA in 236 innings as a 23 year old. He walked 55, hit 8 and struck out 170, a 2.7:1 K/BB+HBP ratio. The next year, his ERA only increased to 3.87, but his other numbers began to collapse. He allowed almost twice as many homers in 13 fewer innings, struck out 160, walked 83 and hit 19, dropping his K/BB+HBP ratio to 1.7:1. Those numbers cratered even further in 2007. In 18 fewer innings he allowed 1 fewer free runner, and struck out 14 fewer batters, while allowing even more home runs and an ERA over 5 in a pitcher’s park.

Prediction: Can the Tigers sort out Dontrelle Willis? If they fix him to a 4.25 ERA, the Tigers have another top 3 starter (assuming Bonderman also follows suit), and the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite. I just don’t see it happening. I think the Tigers will finish behind the Indians, somewhere in the neighborhood of 89-73.