Know thy foes - the White Sox

Last Season: 72-90, 4th place

Short Term Outlook: 2007 was seen as a massively disappointing season by White Sox fans, but most independent observers saw them as clear underdogs in the Central. However, 2008 will almost certainly be better.

Long Term Outlook: Way, way down.

Who is new? Nick Swisher is the best player acquired in the offseason by the White Sox, and will be their left fielder. Alexei Ramirez is a Cuban who is in his late 20s, give or take. Ramirez can play in several positions, depending on Ozzie Guillen’s whims. He may start in center, he may be a super utility player. Backing up in the outfield will be former elite prospect Carlos Quentin, who proved a disappointment in Arizona. The White Sox seemed to finally got sick of Juan Uribe’s complete inability to reach base, and thus traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. In the bullpen, oft injured Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink were signed to luxurious free agent contracts.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: There is absolutely nobody left in this system. Top prospects Gio Gonzalez and Fautino de los Santos were included in the Swisher trade, as was the disappointing Ryan Sweeney. The White Sox have been picking towards the bottom of the first round recently, selecting pitchers with limited upside the past 3 seasons. I guess, if forced to choose a single player, I’ll go ahead and list CF John Shelby Jr. He’s not an elite prospect by any means, but he’s the son of a major leaguer, and hit well as an old 21 year old in the Sally League. He will probably start at Hi-A Winston-Salem, and may be pushed to AA Birmingham in this thin system.

My Take: Kenny Williams has often been the butt of insults for the more statistically inclined baseball fans. He was a primary villain in Moneyball. He has, in the past, seemed to change strategies on a yearly basis. Despite that fact, he was the general manager of the 2005 World Champions. Williams put together an outstanding pitching staff supported by a bullpen that saw five pitchers have their best seasons. Williams has been put into an awkward position in 2008 because of that championship in 2005.

White Sox fans have always had a bit of an inferiority complex, and reasonably so. Chicago is a Cubs town, always has been and always will be. However, in 2005 the Cubs slumped to a disappointing 79-83 while the White Sox were winning their first championship since 1917. For the first time in years, Chicago became a borderline White Sox city. This held through 2006 when the White Sox still won 91 games while the Cubs dropped to 66-96. White Sox fans were enjoying the spotlight. However, 2007 saw things return to normalcy, both in the public and on the field. The White Sox dropped to 72 wins while the Cubs won the NL Central and returned to the dominant team in the press and public.

As a result, Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to make one last glorious attempt to reclaim the city. They traded their top two prospects for Swisher. They traded a key starter for a much needed upgrade at shortstop. However, behind solid pitchers Mark Buehrle and Javy Vazquez, this leaves only highly flammable options to fill out the rotation. To start the season, John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd will be in the rotation; don’t be surprised to see other likely strugglers in Lance Broadway, Jack Egbert or Charlie Haeger this season.

Beyond the flammable rotation, Williams spent $30M on a combined six seasons of Dotel and Linebrink. Linebrink was signed for 4 years, $19M and was given a no trade clause of unknown scope. He was traded by a contender in 2007, a statement which is harsher than reality. His ERA was only 3.71 last year, but it has jumped by a run and a half since his back to back 2.14 and 1.83 ERA seasons in 2004-5, and his strikeouts have gone way down. He will be 32. Dotel will be 34 in 2008. He was signed for 2 years and $11M. Dotel has pitched 61 innings in the past 3 seasons. Combined.

In the lineup, picking up Swisher was an excellent move for the White Sox. He has very much a flyball swing, an asset at home run happy US Cellular Field. Ramirez can also be an asset, assuming he’s closer to 28 than 32. In Cuba he was a shortstop, but he’s played a variety of up the middle positions this spring for the White Sox. He’s been mentioned as a potential second baseman, but will likely wind up in center. The trouble with this is that if Ramirez starts in center, the previously shunted Uribe will be the starting second baseman as Danny Richar has been both knocked up and unimpressive. If Ramirez is at second, scrappy but ineffective Jerry Owens is in center. Either way, there’s an offensive hole involved.

The same cannot be said for resigning Joe Crede. A player who is entering his 30s, who just lost over 2/3 of a season to a bad back is not worth resigning when you already have a younger, better, and cheaper player at his position (Josh Fields.) And resigning that player for $5M is simply lunacy. Injury prone redundancy will get you nowhere.

The rest of the White Sox core remains in place, which is a mixed bag. Jermaine Dye is 34; his OPSes the last 4 years have been .793, .845, 1.007 and .803. Jim Thome is still an incredible hitter against righties, but has become nearly impotent against lefties. Paul Konerko is a candidate for collapse – PECOTA pegs that likelihood at 29%, a number which looks good next to AJ Pierzynski’s 42%, just in time for his 3 year, $18M extension.

Key Player: I’ll go ahead and say it’s the back end of the rotation. Floyd had the best ERA of the bunch last year at 5.27. At least he and Danks have youth on their side; Floyd is 25, Danks will be 23 on Tax Day. Contreras is of unknown age – like most Cubans, he’s suspected to be older than the age he lets on (which is 36.) Both Floyd and Danks were top prospects just a couple of years ago, but both have struggled in the upper levels of the minor leagues, not to mention the majors. If at least two of these three step up, the White Sox should have a very good rotation able to cover for potential crisis in the pen and decay at the bat.

Prediction: I don’t think that will happen, though. There’s potential for a massive collapse here, and if it doesn’t happen in 2008 it will happen by 2010. For this season, I do think they’ll improve slightly on 2007, but the White Sox don’t look like anything more than a 77 win team to me.