Short Term Outlook: Should crack 70 wins for the first time since 2003. Baby steps.
Long Term Outlook: The southernmost team in the AL Central should rise again shortly.
Who is new? Trey Hillman, the new manager, is certainly a different type of manager than the Royals have hired recently. The previous two managers were both questionable decisions for completely different reasons. Tony Pena had no previous managerial experience, and was hired only five years after he retired. Buddy Bell, on the other hand, has had a solid history of teams that were perceived to underperform. Hillman, meanwhile, was a successful manager in Japan, and now comes back stateside to lead the Royals into the future as a contender.
One of the benefits of having a manager who has close ties with a talent pool such as Japan is that it makes it easier to assess, sign and integrate that talent. That’s the case with Yasuhiko Yabuta, an experienced Japanese reliever who signed a 2 year deal with the Royals for a reasonable $6M. This is the second year in a row the Royals were able to find international talent at a reasonable price, after picking Joakim Soria in the 2007 Rule 5 draft on the strength of a fine year in Mexico. The Royals can only hope that Yabuta is as successful as Soria was.
Jose Guillen is the other major addition to the Royals, signed to be their every day right fielder, a curious signing. For the amount of money (3 years, $36M), you’d have expected the Royals to be picking up a world beater, but Guillen is a notoriously cranky clubhouse presence who is prone to pouting his way through a season. The Royals obviously hope that this contract means he’ll be happy, keep to himself and produce, but it’s a significant risk.
Lesser acquisitions include Ron Mahay, Brett Tomko and Alberto Callaspo, a utility infielder who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for prospect Billy Buckner.
Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: 2008 is an important season for Luke Hochevar, the number 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft. A difficult 2007 has seen him passed by several pitchers drafted below him, guys like Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. Hochevar was drafted first because he was seen as both a potential top of the rotation guy and close to the majors, but his performances thus far haven’t been indicative of the former, and he’s not yet a rotation regular. He’ll start in AAA Omaha with eyes towards a midseason promotion.
Another player to keep an eye on is Mike Stodolka. The fourth overall pick in the 2000 draft as a pitcher, Stodolka battled injuries and an inability to crack 90 MPH and never made it to AAA; his career marks at AA include a 5.92 ERA and a 4-11 record. However, in 2006 he became the first baseman on the Royals’ California League affiliate, High Desert, where he put up decent numbers. Stodolka then went on to prove that those numbers weren’t a fluke, putting up a .291/.409/.462 season at AA Wichita.
There are a few things here. You can point to Stodolka’s age, 25, and say that his numbers at Wichita really aren’t all that impressive because of it. This is not terribly true, as Stodolka wasn’t a hitter for five seasons and it’s reasonable to consider his stats the equivalent of those of a 23 year old. Another criticism is that Stodolka hasn’t shown the power you’d like from a first baseman, and this is more valid. You’d certainly want to see him increase his home runs from 12 in 460 PAs at the next level. But there’s talent there, and there’s reason to root for him. Aside from Rick Ankiel, the ability to go from pitching flameout to making the majors as a hitter is stunningly rare. So keep an eye on the Omaha stats and see how he’s doing.
My Take: The White Sox and the Twins seem on the road to a long rebuilding process. The Indians are about to lose their best pitcher, and their minor league system seems to be filled with players that don’t appear likely to be stars. There’s still a good amount of talent in the Indians system though, and reasonably priced that they should remain a strong team capable of winning 87+ wins annually. The Tigers have an awful lot of old players and only one minor leaguer of note. While the Tigers have a solid core of young players in Verlander, Bonderman, Granderson, and recently added Cabrera and Willis, the rest of their top players will be in their mid 30s by 2010.
The Tigers could probably now be considered to be a so-called big market team. Since 2004 their payroll has increased from $47M to $95M, and will almost certainly exceed $100M in 2008. It’s reasonable to expect owner Mike Ilitch to permit GM Dave Dombrowski to sign free agents to fill the void left by aging and out of contract players. However, the players they currently have under contract for 2010 are already quite expensive:
This doesn’t include Justin Verlander, who will be in his last year of arbitration eligibility. Conservatively assuming that Verlander continues to be an ace pitcher and will earn at least $5M, the Tigers have ten players who collectively are making over $100M. The lack of depth in the Tigers system means that the cheap fill ins might be harder to come by over the next couple of seasons. Therefore, Dombrowski might not be able to sign his way rebuilding his club.
Why am I going on in such detail about the Tigers in the Royals comment? Because it means that the Royals have an opportunity to step in and fill the void as a primary challenger to the AL Central. While the Twins do not have a great deal of depth in their minor league system, they have recently graduated a number of young players who look like major contributors to the majors. They do have a potential stud in the minor league system in Mike Moustakas, but he might not be ready by 2010. They have two potential front line starters in Hochevar and Daniel Cortes. However, they need to do a better job of developing lower picks into contributors at the major league level. The Royals will probably never be able to outspend the Tigers or White Sox, so these players need to fill utility roles and bullpen positions cheaply and reasonably effectively.
Another source of concern for the Royals is that GM Dayton Moore needs to do a better job of managing the major league team financially. A key to success financially for the Royals is flexibility. The decision to sign Guillen is questionable at best not only for the reasons listed above, but he’ll still be owed $12M in 2010. This may hinder the Royals ability to sign a key player in 2009 or 2010 when they’ll be much closer to contention than in 2008. Moore should look to lock up young, developing talents like Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Zack Greinke to long term deals, not older players in decline like Jose Guillen.
A better example of a signing that makes sense this offseason is Moore’s decision to sign Brett Tomko. Friendly to the club in both cost and length (1 year, $3M), Tomko can start the year in the rotation while Hochevar readies himself at Omaha. If all goes well, Tomko can post a 4.75 ERA and be flipped at the trade deadline for a player the Royals are lacking – that cheap player who fills out a squad competently.
Moore needs to do a better job of making the ultimate decision on a player like Alex Gordon. There was no reason for Gordon to spend the entire 2007 season in the majors. It accelerated his arbitration clock, it accelerated his free agency arrival. Gordon should have started the year at Wichita, then been promoted in May or June, a strategy taken with Billy Butler. Once Gordon struggled through the first two months, hitting under .200, he should have been sent down then. While it is admirable that the club stood by their prospect, it would be a whole lot better to have him under their control for an additional year. Two months without Gordon may have been costly to the Royals if they were contenders in 2007, but they weren’t, and Moore needs to realize this going forward.
Key Player: David DeJesus needs to demonstrate that his age 27 slump in 2007 was not a signal of declining skills. He was healthy for a full season for the first time, but put up career lows in batting average, OBP and slugging, while posting career highs in walks and strikeouts. Those are very dangerous signs.
Prediction: The Royals are a year or two away. Despite the somewhat harsh comments towards Moore above, it’s clear that he’s a far better fit for the Royals than his Allard Baird was. If nothing else, he’s given Royals fans hope, and there appears to be a bright light at the end of the tunnel for them. There’s the potential that this team could finish 3rd in the AL Central, but I think they’ll fall just short, but will approach 75 wins, which would represent a significant step forward for the franchise.
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