Know thy foes - the Royals

Last Season: 69-93, 5th place

Short Term Outlook: Should crack 70 wins for the first time since 2003. Baby steps.

Long Term Outlook: The southernmost team in the AL Central should rise again shortly.

Who is new? Trey Hillman, the new manager, is certainly a different type of manager than the Royals have hired recently. The previous two managers were both questionable decisions for completely different reasons. Tony Pena had no previous managerial experience, and was hired only five years after he retired. Buddy Bell, on the other hand, has had a solid history of teams that were perceived to underperform. Hillman, meanwhile, was a successful manager in Japan, and now comes back stateside to lead the Royals into the future as a contender.

One of the benefits of having a manager who has close ties with a talent pool such as Japan is that it makes it easier to assess, sign and integrate that talent. That’s the case with Yasuhiko Yabuta, an experienced Japanese reliever who signed a 2 year deal with the Royals for a reasonable $6M. This is the second year in a row the Royals were able to find international talent at a reasonable price, after picking Joakim Soria in the 2007 Rule 5 draft on the strength of a fine year in Mexico. The Royals can only hope that Yabuta is as successful as Soria was.

Jose Guillen is the other major addition to the Royals, signed to be their every day right fielder, a curious signing. For the amount of money (3 years, $36M), you’d have expected the Royals to be picking up a world beater, but Guillen is a notoriously cranky clubhouse presence who is prone to pouting his way through a season. The Royals obviously hope that this contract means he’ll be happy, keep to himself and produce, but it’s a significant risk.

Lesser acquisitions include Ron Mahay, Brett Tomko and Alberto Callaspo, a utility infielder who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in exchange for prospect Billy Buckner.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: 2008 is an important season for Luke Hochevar, the number 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft. A difficult 2007 has seen him passed by several pitchers drafted below him, guys like Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw. Hochevar was drafted first because he was seen as both a potential top of the rotation guy and close to the majors, but his performances thus far haven’t been indicative of the former, and he’s not yet a rotation regular. He’ll start in AAA Omaha with eyes towards a midseason promotion.

Another player to keep an eye on is Mike Stodolka. The fourth overall pick in the 2000 draft as a pitcher, Stodolka battled injuries and an inability to crack 90 MPH and never made it to AAA; his career marks at AA include a 5.92 ERA and a 4-11 record. However, in 2006 he became the first baseman on the Royals’ California League affiliate, High Desert, where he put up decent numbers. Stodolka then went on to prove that those numbers weren’t a fluke, putting up a .291/.409/.462 season at AA Wichita.

There are a few things here. You can point to Stodolka’s age, 25, and say that his numbers at Wichita really aren’t all that impressive because of it. This is not terribly true, as Stodolka wasn’t a hitter for five seasons and it’s reasonable to consider his stats the equivalent of those of a 23 year old. Another criticism is that Stodolka hasn’t shown the power you’d like from a first baseman, and this is more valid. You’d certainly want to see him increase his home runs from 12 in 460 PAs at the next level. But there’s talent there, and there’s reason to root for him. Aside from Rick Ankiel, the ability to go from pitching flameout to making the majors as a hitter is stunningly rare. So keep an eye on the Omaha stats and see how he’s doing.

My Take: The White Sox and the Twins seem on the road to a long rebuilding process. The Indians are about to lose their best pitcher, and their minor league system seems to be filled with players that don’t appear likely to be stars. There’s still a good amount of talent in the Indians system though, and reasonably priced that they should remain a strong team capable of winning 87+ wins annually. The Tigers have an awful lot of old players and only one minor leaguer of note. While the Tigers have a solid core of young players in Verlander, Bonderman, Granderson, and recently added Cabrera and Willis, the rest of their top players will be in their mid 30s by 2010.

The Tigers could probably now be considered to be a so-called big market team. Since 2004 their payroll has increased from $47M to $95M, and will almost certainly exceed $100M in 2008. It’s reasonable to expect owner Mike Ilitch to permit GM Dave Dombrowski to sign free agents to fill the void left by aging and out of contract players. However, the players they currently have under contract for 2010 are already quite expensive:



This doesn’t include Justin Verlander, who will be in his last year of arbitration eligibility. Conservatively assuming that Verlander continues to be an ace pitcher and will earn at least $5M, the Tigers have ten players who collectively are making over $100M. The lack of depth in the Tigers system means that the cheap fill ins might be harder to come by over the next couple of seasons. Therefore, Dombrowski might not be able to sign his way rebuilding his club.

Why am I going on in such detail about the Tigers in the Royals comment? Because it means that the Royals have an opportunity to step in and fill the void as a primary challenger to the AL Central. While the Twins do not have a great deal of depth in their minor league system, they have recently graduated a number of young players who look like major contributors to the majors. They do have a potential stud in the minor league system in Mike Moustakas, but he might not be ready by 2010. They have two potential front line starters in Hochevar and Daniel Cortes. However, they need to do a better job of developing lower picks into contributors at the major league level. The Royals will probably never be able to outspend the Tigers or White Sox, so these players need to fill utility roles and bullpen positions cheaply and reasonably effectively.

Another source of concern for the Royals is that GM Dayton Moore needs to do a better job of managing the major league team financially. A key to success financially for the Royals is flexibility. The decision to sign Guillen is questionable at best not only for the reasons listed above, but he’ll still be owed $12M in 2010. This may hinder the Royals ability to sign a key player in 2009 or 2010 when they’ll be much closer to contention than in 2008. Moore should look to lock up young, developing talents like Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Zack Greinke to long term deals, not older players in decline like Jose Guillen.

A better example of a signing that makes sense this offseason is Moore’s decision to sign Brett Tomko. Friendly to the club in both cost and length (1 year, $3M), Tomko can start the year in the rotation while Hochevar readies himself at Omaha. If all goes well, Tomko can post a 4.75 ERA and be flipped at the trade deadline for a player the Royals are lacking – that cheap player who fills out a squad competently.

Moore needs to do a better job of making the ultimate decision on a player like Alex Gordon. There was no reason for Gordon to spend the entire 2007 season in the majors. It accelerated his arbitration clock, it accelerated his free agency arrival. Gordon should have started the year at Wichita, then been promoted in May or June, a strategy taken with Billy Butler. Once Gordon struggled through the first two months, hitting under .200, he should have been sent down then. While it is admirable that the club stood by their prospect, it would be a whole lot better to have him under their control for an additional year. Two months without Gordon may have been costly to the Royals if they were contenders in 2007, but they weren’t, and Moore needs to realize this going forward.

Key Player: David DeJesus needs to demonstrate that his age 27 slump in 2007 was not a signal of declining skills. He was healthy for a full season for the first time, but put up career lows in batting average, OBP and slugging, while posting career highs in walks and strikeouts. Those are very dangerous signs.

Prediction: The Royals are a year or two away. Despite the somewhat harsh comments towards Moore above, it’s clear that he’s a far better fit for the Royals than his Allard Baird was. If nothing else, he’s given Royals fans hope, and there appears to be a bright light at the end of the tunnel for them. There’s the potential that this team could finish 3rd in the AL Central, but I think they’ll fall just short, but will approach 75 wins, which would represent a significant step forward for the franchise.

Know thy foes - the White Sox

Last Season: 72-90, 4th place

Short Term Outlook: 2007 was seen as a massively disappointing season by White Sox fans, but most independent observers saw them as clear underdogs in the Central. However, 2008 will almost certainly be better.

Long Term Outlook: Way, way down.

Who is new? Nick Swisher is the best player acquired in the offseason by the White Sox, and will be their left fielder. Alexei Ramirez is a Cuban who is in his late 20s, give or take. Ramirez can play in several positions, depending on Ozzie Guillen’s whims. He may start in center, he may be a super utility player. Backing up in the outfield will be former elite prospect Carlos Quentin, who proved a disappointment in Arizona. The White Sox seemed to finally got sick of Juan Uribe’s complete inability to reach base, and thus traded Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera. In the bullpen, oft injured Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink were signed to luxurious free agent contracts.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: There is absolutely nobody left in this system. Top prospects Gio Gonzalez and Fautino de los Santos were included in the Swisher trade, as was the disappointing Ryan Sweeney. The White Sox have been picking towards the bottom of the first round recently, selecting pitchers with limited upside the past 3 seasons. I guess, if forced to choose a single player, I’ll go ahead and list CF John Shelby Jr. He’s not an elite prospect by any means, but he’s the son of a major leaguer, and hit well as an old 21 year old in the Sally League. He will probably start at Hi-A Winston-Salem, and may be pushed to AA Birmingham in this thin system.

My Take: Kenny Williams has often been the butt of insults for the more statistically inclined baseball fans. He was a primary villain in Moneyball. He has, in the past, seemed to change strategies on a yearly basis. Despite that fact, he was the general manager of the 2005 World Champions. Williams put together an outstanding pitching staff supported by a bullpen that saw five pitchers have their best seasons. Williams has been put into an awkward position in 2008 because of that championship in 2005.

White Sox fans have always had a bit of an inferiority complex, and reasonably so. Chicago is a Cubs town, always has been and always will be. However, in 2005 the Cubs slumped to a disappointing 79-83 while the White Sox were winning their first championship since 1917. For the first time in years, Chicago became a borderline White Sox city. This held through 2006 when the White Sox still won 91 games while the Cubs dropped to 66-96. White Sox fans were enjoying the spotlight. However, 2007 saw things return to normalcy, both in the public and on the field. The White Sox dropped to 72 wins while the Cubs won the NL Central and returned to the dominant team in the press and public.

As a result, Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided to make one last glorious attempt to reclaim the city. They traded their top two prospects for Swisher. They traded a key starter for a much needed upgrade at shortstop. However, behind solid pitchers Mark Buehrle and Javy Vazquez, this leaves only highly flammable options to fill out the rotation. To start the season, John Danks, Jose Contreras and Gavin Floyd will be in the rotation; don’t be surprised to see other likely strugglers in Lance Broadway, Jack Egbert or Charlie Haeger this season.

Beyond the flammable rotation, Williams spent $30M on a combined six seasons of Dotel and Linebrink. Linebrink was signed for 4 years, $19M and was given a no trade clause of unknown scope. He was traded by a contender in 2007, a statement which is harsher than reality. His ERA was only 3.71 last year, but it has jumped by a run and a half since his back to back 2.14 and 1.83 ERA seasons in 2004-5, and his strikeouts have gone way down. He will be 32. Dotel will be 34 in 2008. He was signed for 2 years and $11M. Dotel has pitched 61 innings in the past 3 seasons. Combined.

In the lineup, picking up Swisher was an excellent move for the White Sox. He has very much a flyball swing, an asset at home run happy US Cellular Field. Ramirez can also be an asset, assuming he’s closer to 28 than 32. In Cuba he was a shortstop, but he’s played a variety of up the middle positions this spring for the White Sox. He’s been mentioned as a potential second baseman, but will likely wind up in center. The trouble with this is that if Ramirez starts in center, the previously shunted Uribe will be the starting second baseman as Danny Richar has been both knocked up and unimpressive. If Ramirez is at second, scrappy but ineffective Jerry Owens is in center. Either way, there’s an offensive hole involved.

The same cannot be said for resigning Joe Crede. A player who is entering his 30s, who just lost over 2/3 of a season to a bad back is not worth resigning when you already have a younger, better, and cheaper player at his position (Josh Fields.) And resigning that player for $5M is simply lunacy. Injury prone redundancy will get you nowhere.

The rest of the White Sox core remains in place, which is a mixed bag. Jermaine Dye is 34; his OPSes the last 4 years have been .793, .845, 1.007 and .803. Jim Thome is still an incredible hitter against righties, but has become nearly impotent against lefties. Paul Konerko is a candidate for collapse – PECOTA pegs that likelihood at 29%, a number which looks good next to AJ Pierzynski’s 42%, just in time for his 3 year, $18M extension.

Key Player: I’ll go ahead and say it’s the back end of the rotation. Floyd had the best ERA of the bunch last year at 5.27. At least he and Danks have youth on their side; Floyd is 25, Danks will be 23 on Tax Day. Contreras is of unknown age – like most Cubans, he’s suspected to be older than the age he lets on (which is 36.) Both Floyd and Danks were top prospects just a couple of years ago, but both have struggled in the upper levels of the minor leagues, not to mention the majors. If at least two of these three step up, the White Sox should have a very good rotation able to cover for potential crisis in the pen and decay at the bat.

Prediction: I don’t think that will happen, though. There’s potential for a massive collapse here, and if it doesn’t happen in 2008 it will happen by 2010. For this season, I do think they’ll improve slightly on 2007, but the White Sox don’t look like anything more than a 77 win team to me.

Know thy foes - the Twins

Last Season: 79-83, 3rd place

Short Term Outlook: Well down.

Long Term Outlook: The minor league cupboard is pretty bare, too.

Who is new? The gaping hole in the rotation. As far as new players go, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez will be 2/3 of the starting outfield, while Brendan Harris, Adam Everett, and Mike Lamb compose 3/4 of the starting infield. Livan Hernandez and Nick Blackburn are the new starters, while Francisco Liriano will return from missing 2007 with Tommy John before long.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: The three players acquired in the Santana trade that will be starting in the minor leagues. Carlos Gomez will be starting in center for Minnesota, but Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey will all be in the minors to start the season. Guerra is a 19 year old hard throwing pitcher who will probably start in AA New Britain, while Humber and Mulvey are projected back-of-the-rotation starters who will begin the season at AAA Rochester.

My Take: New General Manager Bill Smith has had a terrible start in his new position. In an offseason where everybody knew he was going to trade his top asset, he somehow minimized the return. Early in December, names such as Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes were mentioned in conjunction with Santana, but Smith delayed on pulling the trigger, holding out for more. Instead, both the Yankees and the Red Sox figured out that the other wasn’t going to make the move for Santana, and the market shriveled up, and Smith wound up trading Santana to the Mets for four prospects, not including their best prospect, Fernando Martinez.

Compounding this error, Smith has then followed up by spending a great deal of money on lesser players. Joe Nathan, the closer on what is shaping up to be a bad team, was signed to a 4 years, $47 million extension. Michael Cuddyer, a right fielder with one season with an OPS over .800, was extended for 3 years and $24 million. Livan Hernandez was signed for one season at $5M, while Craig Monroe was signed for one season at $3.8M in order to avoid arbitration. Mike Lamb, a 32 year old part time player, was signed for 2 years, $6.6M.

In the midst of this madness, Justin Morneau was reasonably signed to an extension as well, while Adam Everett was signed to play short. Everett cannot hit the ball, but is an excellent defensive player, the sort of player to bring in if you’re developing a young pitching staff.

The Twins are clearly rebuilding for at least this season, and probably the next couple. There’s no reason to bring in guys like Hernandez or Monroe (who won’t even start). Mike Lamb isn’t the worst idea in the world, since the Twins don’t have a ready player for third base, but he’s a part time player, which will just encourage Nick Punto to play more often. The signings of Nathan and Cuddyer are baffling. Cuddyer is the sort of player you try to move in the Twins current state of rebuild, not keep around. With a $24M albatross hanging over his head, he’ll be difficult to move during the season. The same goes for Nathan, who’ll be 36 at the end of his extension. An elite closer is a luxury a rebuilding team cannot afford. Nathan has been incredible, but he’ll be very difficult to move in the next two or three seasons, by which point his skills may have declined and his contract no longer reasonable.

Smith’s other big trade of the offseason is an interesting trade that boils down to a challenge: Matt Garza for Delmon Young. It’s a telling statement that a player who was considered a top 2 prospect for the last 2 seasons was willing to be traded, and not for a ready star, but for another young player. He’ll be in left field every day hoping to turn his tools into skills. One hindrance is that the Twins organization is not known for helping players working on plate discipline, which is Young’s greatest weakness – he walked 26 times in 681 plate appearances last year.

Key Player: Joe Mauer. The whispers that he won’t be able to stay at catcher are getting louder. Mauer is 6’5”, a height matched only by one regular catcher – Sandy Alomar Jr. Alomar had cranky knees throughout his career. Mauer missed a chunk of 2007 with leg issues extending into his quadriceps muscle. He also had a significant drop off from his incredible 2006 season. He was reportedly taking grounders at third base during spring training.

This season is key for him. Will he stay healthy enough to give the Twins faith that he’ll be able to remain a catcher? Will he hit enough to be a star at third, too? Or will neither of these come true, and Mauer continues as an injury prone catcher or becomes an unspectacular third baseman?

Prediction: There’s enough talent here that the Twins won’t be truly bad, but it’s misplaced talent. Not knowing what the public backlash would be, it’s easy to say from the outside that they’d have done better to blow the whole thing up, moving Nathan and Cuddyer along with Santana. They look like a 75 win team to me, which will probably be a 4th place finish in the AL Central.

Know thy foes - the Tigers

Last Season: 88-74, 2nd place

Short Term Outlook: Predicted by many to improve to at least 95 wins, but it might not be that simple.

Long Term Outlook: They’ve added a big piece of the long term puzzle in Miguel Cabrera, but aside from one elite prospect in Rick Porcello, the minor league cupboard is bare.

Who is new? You may have heard about the high profile additions the Tigers made in the offseason. Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones were all traded for. The bullpen also has a new face in Denny Bautista.

Minor Leaguers to keep an eye on: Rick Porcello was the Tigers first round pick in 2007. Seen as possibly the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett, Porcello dropped all the way to 27th because Scott Boras informed teams that Porcello would require Beckett money to sign, adjusted for inflation. These demands, coupled with the majority of teams wanting to keep in line with MLB’s recommended bonuses caused teams to pass on Porcello. The Tigers jumped at the chance to get an elite talent so far down in the draft. He’s likely to start in the Midwest League at West Michigan.

My Take: I’ve heard all sorts of comments that the Tigers could be the first team since the 1999 Indians to score 1000 runs in a season. It’s not going to happen. That Indians team had a .372 OBP while slugging .467. The Tigers last year had a .345 OBP, slugged .458 and only scored 887 runs. Yes, they added an outstanding hitter in Miguel Cabrera, but other players are in line to have worse years than they did last year. Ivan Rodriguez is in perpetual decline, Gary Sheffield is 39, Magglio Ordonez won’t repeat his career year and Placido Polanco won’t either.

The other two new players, Renteria and Jones will struggle to add to the offense. Renteria’s OPS the last 4 seasons are .728, .720, .797 and .860. Which one of those is most out of line? Jacque Jones OPS the last 4 seasons are .742, .757, .833 and .735. Which one of those is most out of line? If the Tigers are expecting the 2007 Renteria and the 2006 Jones, they’re in for a rude awakening. On this evidence, the Tigers may be hard pressed to score 900 runs.

The Tigers will need their lineup to score a lot of runs, because their pitching is a huge question mark entering the season. Justin Verlander is a Cy Young winner in waiting at the head of the rotation, but behind him are a series of question marks. Kenny Rogers is about 55 years old and coming off circulation and elbow issues. Jeremy Bonderman is coming off an injury plagued second half of the season in which he again was below average. Bonderman has all the talent in the world, but he’s posted one season with an ERA below 4.50. Nate Robertson is the Tigers’ Jake Westbrook.

The Tigers will need to strike lucky to get good performances out of the bullpen. Their two best relievers, Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney will be out for a while. Todd Jones, the closer, joins Joe Borowski in perpetually walking a tightrope. Bobby Seay seems to be a solid option as a lefty, but other than that, the Tigers are going to hope for quite a few of those miracle seasons in relief out of a number of pitchers who are a mix of talented but unreliable, ‘gamers’ who don’t have much in the way of ‘stuff’, or are oft injured. That’s an awful lot of question marks to fill in.

As you have probably perceived by the above, there’s not a lot of depth in the system. Brandon Inge figures to be an unhappy utility player, filling in all over the field, but he’s now 31 and in decline since he was 27. Marcus Thames will probably be Jacque Jones platoon partner in left field.

Key Player: Dontrelle Willis. In 2005, Willis was the talk of the majors, going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA in 236 innings as a 23 year old. He walked 55, hit 8 and struck out 170, a 2.7:1 K/BB+HBP ratio. The next year, his ERA only increased to 3.87, but his other numbers began to collapse. He allowed almost twice as many homers in 13 fewer innings, struck out 160, walked 83 and hit 19, dropping his K/BB+HBP ratio to 1.7:1. Those numbers cratered even further in 2007. In 18 fewer innings he allowed 1 fewer free runner, and struck out 14 fewer batters, while allowing even more home runs and an ERA over 5 in a pitcher’s park.

Prediction: Can the Tigers sort out Dontrelle Willis? If they fix him to a 4.25 ERA, the Tigers have another top 3 starter (assuming Bonderman also follows suit), and the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite. I just don’t see it happening. I think the Tigers will finish behind the Indians, somewhere in the neighborhood of 89-73.

Ben Francisco has been optioned to Buffalo

There's not much more to add.

NRIs Jason Tyner, Andy Gonzalez, Yamid Haad and Brendan Donnelly have not officially been reassigned to minor league camp. Donnelly is recovering from Tommy John, while the others may head to Atlanta with the big team for the remaining pair of exhibition games before joining Buffalo on Sunday. None of the four will be on the major league squad however.

Shin Soo Choo has not officially been placed on the disabled list. I am uncertain of the exact rules in play, but the reason for this is that he may not be able take part in a minor league exhibition game if he's on the major league disabled list, and he's been getting the occasional game as a DH there. When he is eventually placed on the DL he'll stay for extended spring training, which I assume will still be in Winter Haven, despite all the goodbyes.

The final cuts

Tom Mastny was optioned to Buffalo Wednesday, leaving the active roster at 27 players, including Craig Breslow. Ben Francisco will be optioned in the next day or two assuming that David Dellucci comes through the late spring games without lingering forearm pain. He had a good game Wednesday, going 3 for 5 with a double and a triple. Shin-Soo Choo will be placed on the 15 day DL to reduce the roster to 25.

The Indians have their final game in Florida today. They move to Goodyear, Arizona next year. The Indians move to Winter Haven in 1993 was a last minute decision - originally the Tribe had planned to relocate spring training to Homestead, Florida, but that city was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew the summer previous. Winter Haven had lost the Boston Red Sox after the 1992 spring, and the city and the team became a marriage of convenience.

For a marriage of convenience, 16 years is a long time. It's featured happiness - the Indians returned to prominence twice during those 16 years. It's featured tragedy - the deaths of Steve Olin and Tim Crews. They had a trial separation in 1995 when the players were locked out; replacement players just weren't the same. And just like most marriages of convenience, the Indians are leaving the homely for the shiny and young trophy wife - the new complex in Goodyear is being custom built for the Indians.

The City of Goodyear has created a web page with cycling pictures of the construction project of the new ballpark, which should be fun to check out as the season goes along. Unlike Winter Haven, the Goodyear complex will be able to be occupied all year long, with advanced training facilities. Additionally, Goodyear is trying to woo the Cincinnati Reds to join the Indians in the complex - the teams would share the park, but would have their own practice fields, training centers, etc. That would definitely be interesting. Despite the fact that the Ohio teams play each other six times a year, a partnership between the two teams can really be a positive for both teams.

And the winner is...

Jorge Julio was added to the forty man roster last night, at the expense of Aaron Fultz who was finally DFAed after a short delay. Julio's addition returns the 40 man roster to full status, and means he has won the battle for the last bullpen job. I'm a bit meh on the matter. Jorge Julio does what Jorge Julio does, which is throws hard and in the general but not specific direction of home plate.

It's possible that the Indians have figured something out about Julio which will let him harness his control just a touch while retaining his strikeouts. Striking people out has never been a problem for Julio; since 2006 he's struck out 144 batters in 128 innings. Unfortunately, in that same time frame he's walked 66, more than one every other inning. He's also thrown a relatively incredible 15 wild pitches. This isn't something that's solved itself in spring, as he walked 7 in 11 IP with 3 wild pitches.

If there's something I keep hammering at in this space, it's that relievers are a naturally volatile bunch, so this could be the season that Julio shaves a handful of walks off that total, or maybe fewer singles fall in and they don't end up hurting him. He's spoken this spring of a new approach, making sure he's got something other than a hard fastball in his arsenal. If that's the case, the Indians found themselves a very good reliever for a season. If the Indians figure out in the middle of May that they have another Roberto Hernandez or Guillermo Mota on their hands, it's very easy to jettison Julio and promote someone from Buffalo in the hopes that this player is the one fortune finds appealing in 2008.

In other news Josh Barfield was optioned to Buffalo, ensuring that Andy Marte has won the job as the thirteenth position player. Barfield needs to play every day, an opportunity that would not be afforded him in Cleveland. Andy Marte needs a(nother, more final) chance to demonstrate if he's capable of producing at the major league level. Marte has shown more power this spring than he's previously demonstrated at the major league level, but with it has come awful defense. I worry that barring an injury to Casey Blake, he just won't get a chance to play with anything approaching regularity, so keeping him in Cleveland won't achieve a great deal.

Although Scott Elarton has been reassigned to minor league camp, Tom Mastny has not officially been optioned to Buffalo, so if Craig Breslow implodes in the next couple days or cusses Wedge out or something, he may yet win the final spot in the bullpen, but that's about what it would require. Interestingly, he's not listed on the active roster on indians.com.

Hours away from First Pitch

There is way too much fuss being made over the fact that Opening Day is taking place in Japan about a week before the rest of the league gets to play games that count. Too much fuss is being made over the fact that the games start at 6AM Eastern. Too much fuss is being made about it being an affair exclusively for the Japanese people and not at all for us Honest American Fans.

Let's get this out of the way: it's not xenophobia, it's pure stereotypical Americentric ignorance. Americans expect the world to cater to us, so when an American institution caters to another people, it's borderline sacrilegious. I've heard and read comments along the lines of "MLB doesn't even care if Americans watch" and "this game isn't for Americans" spoken in anger. Here's a newsflash: it's true.

These three games aren't about America at all. These three games are about helping expand the game of baseball and the institution of Major League Baseball (and, to a lesser degree, the Red Sox and Athletics) to an absolutely massive foreign market. MLB has done an outstanding job in recent years of figuring out new ways to market itself, a welcome change from years past when it's inclination was to anti-market itself (a tendency still embarrassingly on display from time to time, witness the Mitchell Report) in an apparent attempt to earn pity. This manifests itself in things like playing games in Japan, mlb.tv, and the phenomenal enhancements to the mlb website.

It tends to be difficult to see the forest when you're obsessing over the fact that this particular tree is really annoying you, but globalization is good for baseball. Increased revenues are good for baseball, particularly when they come from overseas and are shared more evenly with teams than other forms of revenue. We all should enjoy the fact that we can turn on our TV while we're getting ready for school or work and be able to watch a baseball game. I know I will.

Things clear up

Indians.com is reporting that Cliff Lee has won the fifth rotation spot, as Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers were both sent down.

Additionally, it appears that Aaron Fultz has been designated for assignment, as Craig Breslow will go north with the Indians. The story on Indians.com merely indicates that Fultz has been 'dropped' and the Indians were 'waiting to make a move regarding reliever Aaron Fultz.' The transaction wire on mlb.com doesn't have the details yet.

If this is the case, this is the move on the 40 man roster to clear up space for either Jorge Julio or Scott Elarton.

Catching up

No Sunday History this week, I apologize.

The Indians last week made another round of expected cuts. Brad Snyder is the biggest name the Indians sent down, he'll start in AAA. He really needs to have a good season if he wants to have a major league career. The others were NRIs reassigned to the minor league camp, and are Matt Ginter, Jeff Harris, Rich Rundles, Armando Camacaro, David Wallace, Danny Sandoval and Aaron Herr. The most interesting names in there are Ginter and Wallace for completely different reasons. Ginter was ostensibly in the mix for the last bullpen spot but was outpitched. Wallace was invited to spring to help catch. He can't hit, but he can catch well. Last season he was called up to help in the bullpen as a catcher and was generally well received by the staff. He should have a future as a coach.

Cliff Lee after a phenomenal start Saturday (5 IP, 4 hits, 5 K, 1 BB, 0 R) should be named the fifth starter before the Indians break camp Thursday.

Speaking of Saturday, it was the 15th anniversary of the boat crash that claimed the lives of Steve Olin and Tim Crews. The Indians are hoping to take some portion of the memorial in Winter Haven to Progressive Field as they break camp. That crash is one of the defining moments of my fanhood, unfortunately.

The Indians claimed lefthander Craig Breslow off waivers from the Red Sox. Breslow has two prominent characteristics. I've mentioned the first: he throws a baseball with his left hand. The second is that he's from Yale. He does strike out a number of batters, and would be an asset in the pen, but is also out of options. This brings the Indians to the maximum number of players on the 40 man roster, and perhaps more importantly, takes away the easy out for when Jorge Julio or Scott Elarton need to be added. Despite what I wrote earlier this spring, I don't imagine the Indians are keen to remove Slocum from the 40 man at this point. This means that Breslow may be moving on, or it may mean that Aaron Fultz' horrendous spring may cost him.

Rule 5 pick Matt Whitney was unsurprisingly returned to the Indians from the Nationals. Originally drafted as a third baseman, a lack of mobility partially due to a broken foot has reduced him to being a first baseman. Where he'll start will be an interesting question, as Michael Aubrey has already been assigned to Akron, which is where Whitney would otherwise be. It's possible they both will squeeze regularish time in there, with Whitney occasionally doing his Carney Lansford impression at third base and not stopping many balls at all.

David Dellucci has an unknown injury to his forearm, apparently it hurts him. However, signs are that he's feeling better and will break camp with the Tribe. He and Michaels need to be healthy at least through May so that the Indians can figure out if their platoon will get the job done or if an upgrade will be needed.

Tiger center fielder Curtis Granderson broke a finger Saturday getting hit by a pitch, likely ruling him out for at least two weeks of the regular season. I would love to point out that an injury to a player like Granderson highlights the lack of Tiger depth, but it doesn't. You're not going to do a very good job of replacing Curtis Granderson even if you are an organization of tremendous depth (e.g. the Rays). No, the indication of the lack of Tiger depth will occur if Jacque Jones or Zach Miner or someone else like that gets hurt and the team seems at a loss as to how to cope.

As the preseason nears an end

The most important battle all spring has been the contest for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it appears to me as though it's down to Cliff Lee and Aaron Laffey. Jeremy Sowers was always the unlikely winner of this battle, and as he's done nothing to particularly distinguish himself thus far, he's likely headed to Buffalo.

The difficult thing about this is, neither Lee nor Laffey have distinguished themselves, either. Laffey has the better ERA at 7.62, and that's only after only giving up one run in 5 innings Wednesday. Lee's ERA is slightly higher, but he's walked fewer than he's struck out, unlike Laffey. Lee has seemed to indicate his stuff and location has been best in the starts that he's had worse results, and Eric Wedge seems to agree. Lee should start again Saturday, and if he puts forth anything resembling a solid start, I think he's likely to be named the 5th starter Sunday. If he struggles again, Laffey should have an opportunity Monday to seize the day.

The open bullpen spot seems to be down to NRIs Jorge Julio and Scott Elarton. Early candidates Rick Bauer and Edward Mujica have already been sent down, while fellow contestant Tom Mastny really hurt himself Sunday with a poor performance against the Yankees. Julio has been the more impressive this Spring, but I'd be more inclined to give Elarton the shot. We know what Julio can do over the full season. While relievers are inherently inconsistent, Julio's inconsistency has wavered between 'meh' and 'ew' since a stunning 2002. While Elarton has been really quite poor as a starter since his shoulder first started hurting him in 2000, there's the chance that the bullpen conversion could really produce an asset.

Despite a tremendous spring, Ben Francisco is likely to be sent down to Buffalo. This is truly a shame, but Wedge seems committed to Javid Dellichaels in left, at least for now. I would not be surprised if Mark Shapiro would be inclined to make an early decision if the platoon does not start out well, and waive or trade one of the outfielders if they do not start well. Francisco would be the obvious inheritor of a fulltime role, with the survivor of the platoon culling becoming a fourth outfielder.

Andy Marte is still likely to begin the season in Cleveland. His bat has looked more potent as spring has moved along, although his glove has been rather worrisome. Josh Barfield has looked decent in spring, with improved patience at the plate, but is still seemingly ticketed for Buffalo. If the new patience is a true signal of an improved approach for Barfield, I would not be surprised if he came up in midseason if Marte continues his struggles, and became a quasi regular somewhere, maybe even at 3rd. In any event, I would hope that he would get some games at 3rd in Buffalo.

I would be much happier if the Indians would win a few more spring games, but with a roster that's largely set, the players are much more focused on doing what they need to do to be ready by March 31st, as opposed to doing what they can to impress now. That's how it always has been, and intellectually I understand it. I'd just rather they win at the same time. And maybe hit a homer with a man on base.

Information on the players cut last week.

Edward Mujica is a Venezuelan the Indians have had in their system since 2001. He’s still pretty young, not turning 24 until early in May. He had a great deal of success since converting to relief in 2005, including a brief shot in the majors in 2006. However, last season was a struggle for him, as he lost the feel of a slider and splitter, leaving him a one pitch pitcher. He had an outside shot to start the season in Cleveland, but was pounded this spring.

Wyatt Toregas has all the makings of a backup catcher; his skill set is probably 40 years past. He had a breakout half-season in Kinston in 2006, but has struggled in a year and a half in Akron. His offensive upside appears to be limited. Should Martinez or Shoppach get hurt, Toregas will become the backup in Cleveland.

J.D. Martin is part of the unfortunate 2001 draft class, one of just a few remnants from that class still in the organization. He threw only about 88 when he was drafted, but still put together Bugs Bunny numbers in Burlington after signing, going 5-1 with 72 strikeouts against 11 walks in 46 innings for a 1.37 ERA. He added a few ticks to his fastball in a brilliant start to 2005 with Akron before he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. He has struggled to recover since.

Jeff Stevens is the player the Indians received for Brandon Phillips. He has a low 90s fastball and an occasional curve. He has gotten good results in the minors thus far, but a full season at AA or AAA will help the Indians determine exactly what they have in him. If he gets a reliable second pitch, he could be a fine setup man.

Chris Gimenez was drafted as an outfielder out of college in 2004 in the 19th round, 5 rounds ahead of Toregas. He has converted to catcher, and the conversion has resulted in him being about a year behind Toregas developmentally, although he’s 25 days younger. Gimenez had his great breakthrough in 2007 in Kinston, but then struggled upon promotion to Akron. If he hits in Akron, he’s likely to receive an invitation to the 40 man roster in 2009.

Jordan Brown is a high average, moderate (at best) power first baseman. This isn’t a profile that has gone on to a great deal of success in the majors. The patron saint of this skill set is Mark Grace, while lesser deities are Lyle Overbay and Sean Casey. There are quite a few players who look like the next Mark Grace, but if you don’t have power as a first baseman, you have to do a lot of other things well. Grace and co. hit for a high average, rope doubles, walk quite a bit and do not strike out very often. They also tend to be very nice guys in the clubhouse. Brown will hope to turn a few more doubles into homers in Buffalo, and maybe work on being a people person, too.

Beau Mills is the Indians first round draft pick in 2007. He did well in A ball, even looking surprisingly competent at third base. He’s likely to start in Kinston, with a midseason promotion to Akron likely.

Trevor Crowe has already been well documented in this space.

Rick Bauer is an interesting case. Brought into camp as an NRI, he was a long shot for the last bullpen spot, and didn’t seem to get as good a look as Jorge Julio, Scott Elarton or Tom Mastny. Bauer was a product of the Orioles system at the time that Matt Riley, Calvin Pickering, Ed Rogers, Keith Reed and Richard Stahl were their top prospects. He wasn’t ever well regarded in the system, which should probably tell you that he was almost anonymous as a pitcher. This isn’t a surprise; he struggled early in his career. Despite ERAs over 4.50 in his first three full seasons, he kept moving up a level at a time. Bauer finally repeated AA in 2001, and put together a really solid season across three levels, including the majors.

Bauer had a full time gig as a reliever in Baltimore in 2002, putting up a good ERA with weak peripherals. Over the next two seasons he kept improving his peripherals, but his ERA kept worsening, and by 2005 he spent the majority of his time in the minor leagues, released at the end of the season. Texas gave him a flier in 2006, and were rewarded with a legitimately solid season, but he did not make the team in 2007, instead spending the entire season in the minors with the AAA affiliates of Philly and the Dodgers.

Fluidity in the bullpen is a good thing. You don’t ever want to commit too much money or too much rigidity to the bullpen, because guys like Rick Bauer are just sitting out there able to put forward a perfectly reasonable season or two. Bauer helps show that inviting quite a few fringe major leaguers or six year minor league veterans to camp is an intelligent thing to do. Rick Bauer can put forth a good year or he can drop a 5.00 ERA on you. Comb through the guys in spring and early on in AAA to figure out which one has put it together this season, and reward him. In the bullpen, there’s strength in numbers.

Sunday History - Corey Smith

There seems to be a bit of unrest amongst fans about Adam Miller’s continuing injury problems. I sense there’s still a lot of faith in his ability, but there’s this lingering feeling of doom that he’ll never be healthy enough to contribute. This brings back memories of the last can’t miss prospect that the Indians developed in their system. That player is Corey Smith.

Corey Smith was the Indians first round draft pick in 2000, taken 26th overall. A shortstop from New Jersey, he was moved to third base immediately upon signing. Before the draft, Baseball America had an interesting scouting report on him, saying that “his talent is universally acknowledged” but that he was never really gushed over. He performed well in the summer Area Code League, which is basically an all-star series of games for high school juniors that uses wood bats. He played well in his high school season, but BA said he “did not play like one of the nation’s best high school seniors.” One thing not mentioned but probably factored in is that it was difficult to figure out how much of his high school performance was Smith’s skills and how much was the weaker competition that is in New Jersey. Entering the draft, BA rated Smith the 19th best player, so the Indians got good value at 26.

Smith quickly signed for approximately slot value, getting a bonus not out of line with those around him. He was assigned to the Indians Appy league team in Burlington, where he did okay, hitting .256, showing a decent eye and some power potential, but striking out 50 times in 207 at bats, while being adventurous at third base.

Despite this mixed start, Smith was rated the Indians’ 3rd best prospect in 2001, falling behind a future Cy Young Award winner and another player who has had a successful major league career in Danys Baez. BA acknowledged his struggles at Burlington, primarily defensively, but still projected him as a four tool third baseman (power, average, strong arm and glovework, they did not feel he would be fast). They described him as a hard worker who is receptive to instruction.

Smith moved to Sally league team Columbus in 2001. His performance there was quite good for a 19 year old - .260 with 18 homers and 26 doubles. However, he struck out 149 times in 500 at bats, against only 37 walks, while committing 45 errors at third base. However, following Sabathia’s and Baez’ graduation to the majors, he was rated the #1 prospect in the Indians organization by Baseball America, who were effusive in their praise, again noting his work ethic, makeup, passion for the game and willingness to listen. They saw him as a potential franchise cornerstone, while seemingly glossing over his glaring weaknesses. Baseball Prospectus, which was even more performance driven in 2002 than it is now, noted his weaknesses more than they noted his potential, and were sour on him.

Smith’s 2002 season was not good at all. He moved to the Carolina league as a 20 year old and struggled. He hit .255, but while his plate discipline increased, his power decreased. His defense was slightly better, his errors decreased to 34. He slid out of Baseball America’s top 10 prospects, falling to 11th. Baseball Prospectus continued to be unimpressed.

Despite struggling in 2002, the Indians moved Smith to Akron to start 2003 as a 21 year old. Yet again, his power decreased. His walks stayed the same, while his strikeouts shrunk dramatically. His defense deteriorated further, as his errors jumped to 44. For the first time, however, Baseball Prospectus saw him in a positive light, feeling he was ready to put his newfound contact ability back with his previous power exploits. Baseball America continued to sour, dropping Smith to the #13 prospect in the organization, and returning to what they said when Smith was a high schooler – that his talent was acknowledged but never raved about. Prospect maven John Sickels was also unimpressed.

Finally, Smith repeated a level in 2004, repeating Akron. There were slight improvements – he more than doubled his homers while increasing his walk rate. However, his strikeouts increased again, his errors hardly went down, and his batting average dropped by 22 points. In all, not the production expected from a repeat of the level. Finally, the organization moved him to the outfield during instructional league. In the offseason, the Indians traded Smith to the Padres in a challenge trade for one of San Diego’s failing prospects, Jake Gautreau. Baseball America did not list Smith among the Padres top 30 prospects, despite ranking San Diego’s system the 27th best in baseball. After one year at AA Mobile with the Padres, Smith spent 2006 with Birmingham, the White Sox AA associate. He then left organized baseball.

Is there a lesson here? I think there is. If you look at everything that was said about Smith, you don’t see where he could have gone wrong. He had the tools, he listened, he worked hard. He had weaknesses, but he addressed them. But there were other things there.

Foremost, the Indians were probably overaggressive in promoting Smith. Three straight years he kept advancing through the system despite not actually thriving at any level. Second, his defensive issues at third base almost certainly affected his development with the bat. In the minors, there’s generally the belief that you keep a player at the more challenging defensive position until he proves unable to handle it. Smith kept trying to prove he couldn’t handle it, but the Indians kept him at third base. I wonder if Smith had moved to left field for the 2002 season if things might have turned out happier. Third, there seemed to be conflicting messages to Smith from year to year. In 2002 his walks go up, his power goes down. In 2003 his strikeouts go down, his average goes up, but his power goes down. In 2004, his power back up, his walks up, his average well down. It really appears as if each year he was given a different thing to work on, to the detriment of other aspects of his offensive game.

Potential is wonderful, but if the guy has a beautiful swing that he doesn’t make contact with, it doesn’t really matter. This is often the great dilemma, especially with cold state players. They don’t play as long or as often as players in Florida, Texas or California, so they tend to lag behind developmentally. A certain amount of projection is necessary to determine what the players are capable of. At some point, however, the player has to actually produce. And that might be the great lesson from Corey Smith.

Further Cuts

Nine players were cut from the major league roster today.

Edward Mujica and Wyatt Toregas were assigned to Buffalo, while NRIs Rick Bauer, J.D. Martin, Jeff Stevens, Chris Jimenez, Jordan Brown, Beau Mills and Trevor Crowe were all reassigned to the minor league camp. Fuller information regarding these players to come, likely on Monday.

Further paring of the roster.

The Indians on Thursday optioned Tony Sipp and Brian Slocum to Buffalo. It was expected for both players to be in Buffalo, although Slocum's strained groin hastened the process for him.

Sipp is seen as a valuable relief prospect for the Indians. A lefthander with good velocity who is able to get righties out as well as lefties, he has the potential to be as good as Rafael Perez. However, Sipp missed 2007 with an elbow injury that was initially tried to rehab non-surgically, but eventually he had Tommy John surgery. He's expected back in mid-season, and becomes a potential member of the 2009 Indians bullpen.

Slocum strained his groin Wednesday, but should be fine. He is a former 2nd round pick of the Indians who has made steady if unspectacular progress through the system. He missed most of 2007 with a variety of injuries. He is the sort of player every team needs - able to be called up to spot start, or able to be moved easily off the 40 man roster without great loss if necessary. Slocum is never likely to be more than a fifth starter, and is likely to be the kind of player who rides the shuttle between AAA and the majors.

Maybe The Bisons Will Be Allowed To Use Four Outfielders?

Anthony Castrovince at mlb.com had an interesting article about the Indians, throughout the system, using Excel to plan out at bats and games for minor leaguers. Obviuosly, this is just another case of the Indians front office going about things sensibly. Having a hard copy full of data eliminates the possibility that something will get lost in translation, and a spreadsheet is awfully easy to refer to.

That's not really the point of this post though. Referenced in the article is that Trevor Crowe is likely to start the season in Buffalo. I have no idea if Castrovince has information to this effect from interviews or if it is merely his hypothesis. In any event, it doesn't seem to make the greatest amount of sense to me. In an earlier post, I was uncertain as to where he would start, but after thinking it over, I think that starting him at Buffalo would be foolhardy.

First, there is the numbers crunch. As the article states, Crowe, Ben Francisco and Brad Snyder will be there. Unless another major league team picks up Jason Tyner at the end of spring training, he'll be headed there. Jason Cooper is still in our system. Shin-Soo Choo is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will be headed to Buffalo for rehab. That's a lot of outfielders. It's a good thing that the Indians have a hard plan for all of these guys, but I'd rather be certain that Crowe, Snyder and Francisco would be playing every day.

Let's say instead that Crowe starts in Akron. Then Buffalo has a regular outfield of Francisco in left, Snyder in right and Tyner in center, with Cooper the fourth outfielder. When Choo goes on rehab, he can fill in the outfield corners. Choo is out of options, so when his rehab is finished, the team is going to have to make a decision with him. He will either be promoted to stay, traded or outrighted. If he's outrighted, I doubt he'll make it through waivers, and would be picked up by another team. Once this happens, Crowe can move up to an every day role, and Tyner moves to a fourth outfielder role.

From Crowe's standpoint, he gets to consolidate the second half gains he achieved while starting in Akron. He can play every day there, and Akron is unlikely to face a glut of outfielders who are either prospects or are deserving of regular play. An outfield of John Drennen, Crowe and Jose Constanza would be a good start to the season. When Crowe gets promoted to Buffalo, the Aeros can make Nathan Panther the new regular in the outfield, or some other minor league veteran.

From the numbers standpoint, it just makes sense. The problem is that if Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro feel that Crowe is ready for the AAA challenge, in which case they may not have a choice but to have an awful lot of outfielders in Buffalo.

The Sabathia Situation

The Indians are in a bit of a pickle with regards to C.C. Sabathia, who has terminated negotiations for a contract extension until the end of the season. Common sense would indicate that Sabathia will be leaving at the end of the year, either for the West Coast or for one of the two big cities on the East Coast. He is likely to sign a contract that will rival the one that Johan Santana signed, one which is not able to be supported by the Indians financial situation.

That is not the dilemma. The dilemma is this: how do the Indians treat Sabathia this season? The treatment should be viewed from two perspectives. First, how do the Indians best use Sabathia this season with the perspective that he will be of no further use to the organization upon the conclusion of the season? Second, do the Indians have an ethical duty to handle Sabathia responsibly?

The answer to the first question is not as easy as it might otherwise appear. Certainly the Indians would want to throw Sabathia out there as often as possible. However, last (regular) season Sabathia tossed 241 innings, 31 more than he had previously, and almost 50 more than the year before. Depending on your source, Sabathia threw somewhere between 3570 and 3581 pitches, about 200 more than in any prior season, and over 600 more than 2006. He was obviously tremendously effective in the regular season, winning the Cy Young, but was horrid in the postseason.

Was he horrible in the postseason simply due to a poorly timed slump, or was he horrible in the postseason because he was fatigued? If the latter, was it because he reached the ceiling of his workload, or was it because he had not worked quite so much before, but with a bit more experience he would be able to exceed even that workload somewhat?

These are questions that have to be answered before determining just how often and how long Sabathia pitches. It will be a tight race this season, so the Indians will not be in a position to save Sabathia for postseaosn starts - they'll need to get everything they can out of him during the entirety of the season, from March 31st to hopefully sometime late in October.

Which brings me to the second part of the dilemma: does the Indians organization have an ethical responsibility to Sabathia to handle him in a manner that will not serve to hurt his chances of injury? Similarly, the answer to this question seems simple but is not particularly so. First, it serves the Indians no good if Sabathia gets hurt during the season. Secondly, while the Machiavellian side of me feels that if abusing Sabathia this season is what it takes to win a title, then so be it, there is a part of me that recognizes that this is just a really awful way to go about it. I often get up in arms about high school and college coaches that really seem unconcerned with their pitcher's future, and have him out there for 130 or more pitches, then bring him in to close a game out two days later. While Sabathia is a grown man who is more likely to handle this, it's still disquieting to imagine.

I think this organization has shown itself to be an upstanding one, which prides itself on such unquantifiable qualities such as character. I think Shapiro and Wedge have shown that they will err on the side of caution in such circumstances. Should they? I don't know. Sabathia has shown himself capable of handing a great deal of stress to his arm.

I think the Indians need to enter this season feeling that Sabathia is gone. While I don't think that Eric Wedge should go all Billy Martin on Sabathia, I think the team owes the fans the responsibility that they will get all that they can out of him in the hopes of winning a title. If this means increasing his workload further, so be it. I don't think having Sabathia pitch 260 innings this season is unreasonable from the club's perspective. And if we've made it to the postseason, then we can worry if we've left anything in his tank.

The Elephant In The Room

I may have missed earlier discussions on the matter, but finally this spring, an Indians beat writer has addressed the elephant in the room. Or, perhaps more accurately, the elephant that remains unsigned. Jim Ingraham finally wrote the "Whither Barry Bonds" article.

It was written the day after Buster Olney's blog entry detailing why the Mets should consider signing Bonds created a great deal of furor in the media. The timing may have been coincidental, or it may have been a reaction piece. Either way, it's worth commenting on here.

First, a note on Ingraham's style for those who may be unfamiliar with his work. Ingraham is a fine reporter and often makes solid insights into the Indians. In years past, he would assist Baseball America with writeups on the Indians top prospects, so he definitely has a solid body of knowledge on the organization, not just the major league team. When he writes pieces that include an opinion, he tends to begin with a particular stance and then finds justifications for it. This includes an unfortunate habit of sometimes finding a negative in what others might see as a positive.

To be fair to Ingraham, he states a great many positives in signing Bonds. Clearly Bonds can still rake. He hit .276/.480/.565 last season in a ballpark that is not conducive to left handed hitters. He would only require a one year contract. He would have a centerfielder with superior range to help cover for his increasing lack of range in left field. He would help fill what is perhaps the Indians biggest weakness - production in the corner outfield spots.

And then he gets to the negatives, which center around largely the same things we've heard about Bonds for years. He creates a media circus. He wouldn't be cheap. Bonds is all about Bonds, not about the team. Furthermore, Ingraham points out that the Indians already have two outfielders and a designated hitter. Then he brings up Albert Belle for reasons that aren't terribly apparent.

Let's address the Belle subject first, because I believe it is relevant to any discussion of Bonds. Belle was certainly not beloved by Indians fans, but he was accepted, despite all of his transgressions, both on and off the field, because he helped the Indians win. Bonds will be the same way. As soon as Bonds starts doing things that help the Indians win ball games, he will be accepted by the majority of fans.

In arguing against bringing Bonds' media circus into the Indians clubhouse, Ingraham implies that the Indians clubhouse is quite harmonious at present, and that Bonds would provide an unnecessary distraction. I think this argument is so flawed that it would point to an ability to bring Bonds in. A harmonious clubhouse with tight knit players would very much be better able to handle the distactions that come with Bonds than a clubhouse already teetering on the bring of dysfunction.

It is worth noting that Bonds does not ask for these distractions. Certainly, Bonds could do things differently, but the media follows Bonds, not the other way around. It is unfortunate that this is the case, as the reason that Bonds is followed around has a great deal to do with performance enhancing drugs. It has been rather firmly established that Bonds is one of many major leaguers to have connections with them. The relentless singling out of Bonds is in many ways despicable.

The decision to sign Bonds should come down to two things. First, determine how much he would cost. Second, ascertain if Bonds' production is worth that expense. That's pretty much it. The fact that the Indians already have two mediocre left fielders should not enter into the discussion, other than noting how much of an upgrade Bonds would be. The distractions that Bonds brings could be factored into his production, but I have a hunch that as long as Bonds helps the team win that the players would be willing to deal with him/them.

As for the first part of that decision making process, speculation is that Bonds would require between 8 and 10 million dollars to sign. As for his production, absolutely he would be worth that money. Addressing concerns about Bonds' defense, frailty and inability to play every day, the Indians have a player in Jason Michaels who would substitute defensively for Bonds late in games and would be able to rest Bonds 2 or 3 days a week.

The trouble is that the Indians don't have that kind of money laying around. I imagine that the Tribe are quite close to their budget currently and don't have the ability to shed several million dollars from it quickly. Furthermore, I doubt that Larry Dolan would be willing to allow the budget to increase so dramatically on such short notice at this point in the season.

If, in fact, the Indians are unwilling to sign Bonds because of the distractions that he would bring, I think this is a point of weakness on the part of management. Eric Wedge has already shown an inability to handle a certain type of players as witnessed by his difficulties with Milton Bradley. Barry Bonds would be a tremendous asset to this team, the sort of player that would turn the Indians from contenders to prohibitive favorites, and Shapiro and Wedge should recognize that fact and be able to put their personal feelings aside.

Unfortunately, I just don't think it will happen as there is the question of whether Bonds would be willing to sign with the Indians. While Bonds certainly wants to play for a contender, I do not think that the Indians are a good fit for him. I think Bonds might prefer to play for a team on which he can be the designated hitter. Additionally, Bonds' children live on the West Coast, and in all the media witch hunting, something that is never mentioned is how devoted to them he is (granting that you're supposed to be devoted to your children), further making Cleveland a poor fit from Bonds' perspective.

I just wish it would happen.

The Fifth Spot

It has been rather firmly established in both this space and in the various media that the fifth spot is a race between Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers. Both have had their moments, at times looking good, at times looking bad. In Lee's last start, ESPN, who was broadcasting the game, aired a graphic in which they projected Aaron Laffey to the be the fifth starter in the rotation. I think a number of Indians fans also feel that the spot is Laffey's to lose.

The fifth spot in the rotation is Cliff Lee's to lose. If Lee and another candidate all do equally well, Lee will get the position. If all three candidates struggle, Lee will get the position. The only way Lee doesn't get the position is if he struggles in his next couple of times out (including today, broadcast on STO) while either Laffey or Sowers is lights out in his next couple of starts. In that instance, it would be hard to justify beginning the season with Lee in the rotation.

There are many reasons for the rather bold proclamation I am making here. The first justification I will give is not at all convincing on it's own, but is an underlying element in the remainder of the arguments. It's a justification that you heard John Kruk give if you watched Lee's start on ESPN. Cliff Lee is a Proven Major Leaguer. Lee won 46 games from 2004-2006. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2005. On it's own, a poor argument. This Indians team is concerned with what a particular player can do to help the team win in 2008, not what he did to help the 2005 team win.

Cliff Lee signed an extension in 2006. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Lee's raises begin kicking in this season, as he's due to make $2.75M. While this front office staff is better than previous staffs at determining a sunk cost and biting the bullet on it, there's an obvious desire to, ceteris peribus, play the guy who is making three times as much as the other two combined. Furthermore, it's a valid question of whether or not Lee truly is a sunk cost at this point in his career.

There is the valid question of what to do with Lee if he does not win the rotation battle. He has an option left, but the general assumption is that if Lee were to be optioned, he would be generally malcontented, and perhaps a distraction for the Buffalo team. If optioning him is not an option, the Indians would be forced to look to trade him or waive him, neither of which is terribly appealing. His trade value is at its absolute lowest, and the Indians would be fortunate to even get a C prospect for him. Meanwhile, cutting him is unappealing as it would mean the Indians would be on the hook for his contract when it has not been firmly established that he can no longer produce.

In baseball culture, it's assumed that young players coming up will be subject to being demoted to the minor leagues even though that player might be the best choice for a particular position. Some would argue that Ben Francisco might fit this argument this season, feeling he'd be better to keep on the Indians than David Dellucci or Jason Michaels. The young player is expected to feel disappointed, but to get over it and continue to work on his game. Meanwhile, should this injustice be perpetrated on a Veteran Player, it's humiliating. The inference is that Laffey and Sowers would be far more understanding of their demotion than Lee.

From a more practical standpoint, let's say that Lee wins the fifth spot in the rotation and performs adequately. He's not lights out, but he's giving the team production that's serviceable from a back end of the rotation guy. Meanwhile, the Indians are in a tight race with the Tigers for the Central lead, and with the Yankees and Red Sox for the Wild Card race. Dellucci and Michaels are providing inadequate production as a left field platoon, or one of the other Indians starters have gotten hurt. In this instance, both Sowers and Laffey will have far more trade value in midseason than Lee would, simply because they will be a) cheaper and b) under the other's teams control for longer. If either young pitcher is throwing great ball in Buffalo, his trade value goes through the roof, so much so that his value to the 2008 Indians team is greater as a trade chit than as a pitcher on the team.

Lastly, there's the argument that Lee's ceiling is the highest of the three pitchers. Neither Sowers nor Laffey are particularly viewed as more than a solid #3 starter, the sort that will give you 200 innings of above average ball. Meanwhile, let's not forget that Cliff Lee, in 2005, pitched 200 innings with a 3.79 ERA, going 18-5, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting. Lee isn't even 30 yet. He still has four good pitches, his fastball still gets up there in the 90s. He hasn't been reduced by injury. He wasn't abused as a young pitcher. Lee could still be capable of being that pitcher, and that pitcher would almost certainly be capable of pushing the Indians ahead of the Tigers, Yankees or Red Sox in what looks like will be a phenomenal battle this season.

Unrelated to baseball, good luck to the Cleveland State Vikings as they strive to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the fabled Sweet Sixteen team of 1986. You can watch them take on heavily favored Butler in the Horizon League finals tonight on ESPN at 9PM

The First Cuts Are Not The Deepest.

The Indians made their first cuts from their major league camp this morning, none of them particularly surprising. Adam Miller and Reid Santos have been optioned to Buffalo, Michael Aubrey and Scott Lewis were optioned to Akron, and Chuck Lofgren was reassigned to the minor league camp.

Adam Miller is of course the top prospect in the organization, and has been since his incredible 2004 season in which he tore through both levels of A ball at age 19 and first elicited comparisons to Bret Saberhagen. At the time, there were thoughts that by 2006 Miller would be in the majors to stay, so it is understandable to believe that Miller not even making his major league debut yet can only be seen as a disappointment. However, there are some positives.

Miller's delay has been due to injuries, not inneffectiveness. While this is not altogether reassuring, the injuries have been to his elbow and finger, which generally do not lead to long term issues, in the way that a shoulder or back injury may. Furthermore, there's now a school of thinking that a pitcher suffering injuries in his teens or early twenties may actually help him. It is no secret that pitchers' arms are fragile during this time frame, and these injuries will help limit the stress put on his developing arm. The key needs to be that these injuries do not stunt the pitcher's development. To put it another way, if Miller goes on to be a #2 starter in the major leagues for many years to come then it's a net gain over someone like Mark Prior or Kerry Wood who have had a glorious but brief career. The caveat is that these injuries may derail Miller's career permanently, as the annals are filled with fine prospects like Ryan Anderson or Roger Salkeld who never made an impact in the majors.

Reid Santos is a pitcher whose ceiling appears to be as a lefty reliever. He throws more junk than Rafael Perez, but similarly has shown a history to get both righties and lefties out in the minors. He was added to the 40 man roster in the offseason, very much at the expense of Brian Barton, who was subsequently selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Cardinals. It's an interesting challenge, one I think the Indians erred on. Santos was always likely to be drafted in the Rule 5, as lefty relievers are a common Rule 5 selection, while I think the Indians incorrectly gambled that Barton would not be. However, Barton has had a great deal of success in the minors, is a capable defensive centerfielder, and profiles as a player who at the very least will be an effective fourth outfielder for several years.

Scott Lewis is an Ohio State product who has recovered from Tommy John and was known for an unbelievable curveball. However, Baseball America relates that he lost touch on that curve last year, but still managed to have a successful season. It's surprising that he was assigned to Akron, as he had an effective season there last season. This is an important year in his development, as the Indians will almost certainly allow him to work deeper into games than he has since he's worked to recover from Tommy John surgery in late 2004.

Michael Aubrey is something of a tragic story that may still turn out happily. The Indians first pick of the 2003 draft, one that has also yielded Miller, Aubrey was seen as the best college hitter in the draft, one capable of quickly reaching the majors. Unfortunately, in 2005 he suffered a stress fracture in his back, an injury that has at times been debilitating. His optioning to Akron means he will have played there every season since 2004, but only totaled 124 games at that level. With luck, he will be able to put a full season, as he's still seen as having a tremendous bat. However, he's now entering his age 26 season having never played in AAA, and a player who is looking at Ryan Garko, Jordan Brown and Travis Hafner all being above him in the organizational pecking order, with Beau Mills rapidly closing behind him.

Chuck Lofgren has been rated the Indians 2nd best prospect by Baseball America in each of the last two seasons. He had a breakout 2006 at Kinston but followed it up with a rather mediocre 2007 at Akron. Another Indian prospect with an important season ahead of him, look for him to start out at Akron to work on his changeup before moving up to Buffalo during the season. The reason he was reassigned to minor league camp as opposed to being optioned like the others is that he is not on the 40 man roster, as the others are.

Sunday History: Indians Alltime Leader In Games Played

Even diehard Indians fans may be hardpressed to name the franchise's alltime leader in games played. I'll give you a shot. He was an infielder in the Deadball Era

If you came up with Nap Lajoie, I'm sorry, you are incorrect. Terry Turner played in 1,619 games as an Indian, edging Lajoie by a mere five games. We know a great deal about Nap Lajoie, but what do we know about Terry Turner? I'd be surprised if another franchise's alltime games leader was as anonymous a player.

About all I knew of Turner is what is contained within his playing record and in the fact that Kenny Lofton passed him some time ago to be the Indians leader in stolen bases. His playing record indicates a player who started at shortstop, then as he aged, he moved to a lesser defensive position; in Turner's case it was third base. Turner was a below average hitter, even given that his career as an Indian spanned from 1904 to 1918. He had a positive OPS+ only three times. The rest of his lines are equally mediocre.

So I went to another source I frequent for information, Baseball Library. Aside from the fact that Baseball Library and Baseball Reference disagree by 2 on Turner's Games Played, I did learn another interesting tidbit: Turner pioneered the headfirst slide.

While certainly interesting, it did not tell me a great deal about Turner as a player. I was able to find a magnificently written game recap from an August 15, 1918 New York Times featuring what was perhaps Turner's last great game, going 4-5 with two doubles and a triple. Included in the article was the following passage:

It was quite a day for old-timers, for in the ninth inning Manager Miller Huggins shoved silent John Hummel up to bat as a pinch hitter. It's a long time since John Hummel used to be a long swatter over at old Washington Park with the Superbas. Since that time silent John has tumbled around in the bush leagues and has been almost forgotten. He waltzed up to the plate yesterday and got a nice infield hit for himself. Before the month is over, Manager Huggins may have to look through "Plutarch's Lives" to dig up enough men to finish the season.

They used to call Hummel Silent John because he never talked back to an umpire. He still retains this clam-like virtue, but the fact remains that, while John nevre used to argue with the umpires, a microscopic examination of his mind might have shown a lot of bottled up ideas about umpires which would be surprising. There may be a baseball sensation at the Polo Grounds some of these days if Silent John happens to break his rule and say something.

While certainly exhilarating, the game recap didn't actually tell me a great deal about Turner. By 1918 he was certainly done, his already mediocre offense deteriorating further.

Fortunately, I was able to locate a SABR project which told me a great deal about Turner. It referred to Turner's headfirst slide as "patented" and that he used it when he was young, even before he even joined the Indians. Turner was by all accounts a superb defensive player, earning favorable comparisons to Honus Wagner, the player of Turner's day who was the best at almost everything.

Turner was beaned in 1908, an incident that was recounted when Ray Chapman was killed by a pitched ball in 1920. Amongst other ailments and injuries that kept him out of games was a bout of typhoid fever. His various nicks and bruises meant that he played over 125 games in a season only four times, and never after age thirty.

Before he was an Indian, he played in two games with the Pittsburgh Pirates, moving to Columbus of the American Association. After two years in Columbus, Turner moved north to Cleveland at age 23, where he would remain for fifteen seasons. His career concluded in Pennsylvania again, this time as an Athletic, where he played 38 games for a 36-104 team. After his playing career he moved to Cleveland, where he lived until his death in 1952.

I hope you enjoyed this week's lesson, and hope that Terry Turner is more than just a name in the record book to you now.

Trevor Crowe

I don't think it is a terrible exaggeration to say that this season is of the utmost importance to Trevor Crowe's development. It might not quite be make or break, but it is very close to it.

To give you background, Crowe was drafted 14th in the 2005 draft, a draft that is shaping up to be one for the ages (Justin Upton 1st, Alex Gordon 2nd, Jeff Clement 3rd, Ryan Zimmerman 4th, Ryan Braun 5th, Troy Tulowitzki 7th, Cameron Maybin 10th, Andrew McCutchen 11th, Jay Bruce 12th, Jacoby Ellsbury 23rd, Matt Garza 25th, Colby Rasmus 28th with others after the first round). Drafted out of the University of Arizona, it was thought that Crowe was close to the majors. He was looked at as a leadoff center fielder. It was hoped that he would develop average power.

Entering 2008, a few things have become clear. Grady Sizemore is the Indians center fielder and leadoff hitter. It is also clear that Crowe will not develop even average power. We're subsequently talking about a corner outfielder without much power. For this to work, he needs to do something else very, very well. To solve this problem, the Indians briefly considered converting Crowe to play second base, an experiment that was short lived.

Despite this, Baseball America rated Crowe the Indians 3rd best prospect entering 2007. He had torn through Hi-A Kinston in 2006, hitting .323/.449/.470 before struggling at AA Akron to the tune of .234/.318/.325. John Sickels, another prospect maven, was slightly less optimistic on Crowe, concerned about his AA struggles, but was still generally favorable, giving him a B- grade (which is actually pretty good from Sickels.)

Unfortunately, 2007 was unkind to Crowe. Through June, he hit only .212/.304/.263 at Akron. His swing mechanically fell apart - he had far more movement than he ever had before. However, he recovered in the second half, hitting .310/.380/.459. His overall line was still an ugly .256/.338/.351.

As a result, Baseball America dropped him to the 13th best prospect in the Indians system, a system that declined in 2007 due to players graduating to the majors. Sickels dropped him a half grade. But have things really changed for Crowe?

I don't think they really have. His major league ceiling is probably similar to what he did in the second half of 2007. There's no doubt that a player who does what Crowe did in the 2nd half in Akron would be an asset at the major league level, even if he's forced to play in left field. It would take a team or an organization that is able to focus on what Crowe would do well (get on base) as opposed to what he does not (hit for power). Fortunately for Crowe, he is in such an organization.

It still holds, however, that 2008 is a vitally important season for Crowe. It remains to be seen which was the real Crowe - the first half, the second half, or if his overall performance for the 2007 season is more a reflection of his true level of ability. Whether the team decides to start Crowe back at Akron in an effort to hold his gains, or or challenge him at Buffalo, he is definitely one of the most important players in the Indians system to keep an eye on.

Spring Training Noises

Indians.com is reporting that there's no guarantee that Paul Byrd will have Kelly Shoppach as his personal catcher this year. I'm not entirely sure if this is just Wedgie saying something for the sake of saying it, or whether he really means it. I think Wedge handled Martinez very well last season. Vic caught only 1042 innings last year, the equivalent of about 116 full games. Martinez also happened to have his best year with the bat. Compare this to 2005, when Martinez caught 1233 innings, including almost every single game in the last 2 months of the season. To be fair, Vic did have a hell of an offensive season in 2005.

I do think that for all the dubious glances the sabermetric community directs at the general idea of how well a catcher handles a pitcher, it seems obvious that the Byrd-Shoppach pairing was mutually beneficial. It forced Wedge to move Martinez from behind the plate at least once every five games, something that will help him in the long run. Furthermore, it just seemed that Byrd and Shoppach worked well together. Wedge was also smart enough to keep Martinez in the lineup by playing him at first base reasonably often.

Wedge in the article says he's hesitant to continue the personal catcher tactic because executing it means that he'll have to sit one of Martinez, Hafner or Garko. However, he'll have to do that once or twice a week anyways, because it's not a good idea to have Martinez catch 140 games. In the end, I think Wedge is more or less giving the reporters a nugget to report, but that Shoppach and Byrd will continue to be paired up, assuming both maintain health throughout the season.

Cliff Lee

Rather pertinent to yesterday's post, this morning Jim Ingraham speculates that Cliff Lee may have taken an early lead in the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation. Granting, the reason for this is almost exclusively because he did not struggle yesterday against the Reds, while both Sowers and Laffey had difficulties. But thinking more about Lee and the pitching battle has presented an interesting question: what will become of Lee if he doesn't win the battle?

If Sowers doesn't win the battle, he'll head to Buffalo, that's well assumed. If Laffey doesn't win the battle, he will either head to the bully to be a swing man if the other choices there do not impress, or he will similarly head to Buffalo. But what of Lee? Will the Indians attempt to sell low, or will they demote him again? You really don't hear talk of Lee going to the pen.

I think it's interesting, though. Oftentimes failed starters head to the pen and they have a resurgence. Sometimes it's because their repertoire is not good enough to start, but I don't think this is the case with Lee, he's got four good pitches, including a good heater and a strong slider. Sometimes it's because they don't have enough stuff. Lee gets into the nineties, and has the aforementioned effective slider. Sometimes it's because they don't have endurance. Again, this isn't a problem with Lee, having pitched back to back 200 IP seasons.

No, the problem that was reported with Lee last year was that he just had trouble locating his fastball. And that's the sort of thing that I'm not sure a move to the pen will solve - in the pen, he'd throw his fastball even more. I think it would be interesting, and if he doesn't win the battle for the rotation, I think it would be obtuse to not try him in the bullpen, particularly if we'd just end up selling him very low. But I just don't think that Lee's problems would be solved by the move back.

Sowers, on the other hand, I'm just not convinced he's got enough stuff to make it as a starter. I think he would benefit from being able to give max effort for one or two innings at a time. It would give him a bit of leeway with his control within the strike zone. As Sowers is currently, he has absolutely no margin for error - if he doesn't hit his spots, he doesn't win.

NRI Analysis

I know Christina Kahrl at BP has been doing her analyses of non-roster invitees (NRIs) of the various divisions, but she hasn't done the AL Central yet. So worry not - this is all me.

I assume the Indians are going to go with 13 hitters and 12 pitchers. Just looking at the pitchers, there are four starters guaranteed spots - Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook and Byrd. Of the seven bullpen spots, six are quite well set: Borowski, Betancourt, Kobayashi, Jensen Lewis, Perez and Fultz. This leaves two spots open for pitchers. They come down to Laffey, Lee and Sowers for the starters - all on the 40 man. The pen is a little more open. NRIs Rick Bauer, Scott Elarton and Jorge Julio all have reasonable shots at that last spot, but they have to beat out Mastny, Mujica and possibly Laffey if he loses the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation.

That's pretty much it though. I don't think there's any other NRIs that have a shot of making the team. Jason Tyner's the only position player NRI that has any sort of Veteran Presence, but he's ticketed to help the Bisons actually win games - that's important for Buffalo's psyche.

If one of the NRIs win the last spot on the pitching staff, there will be a spot available for him, as Juan Lara will certainly spend the year on the 60 day DL after his horrible accident in his native Dominican Republic.

As for the Rule 5 players we lost, I don't see Brian Barton coming back. I fully envision him being able to play adequately as a Cardinal reserve this season, although whether there will be room for him when Colby Rasmus takes over an outfield spot permanently is another matter. I am much more doubtful that Matt Whitney will stick with the Nats. They already have two first basemen in Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson (till he gets hurt again), plus a wide assortment of outfielder types who'll be keen to pinch hit on days they're not starting. I don't think they'll be able to keep a player who can't play much defense and hasn't played above A ball around. On the other hand, they kept Jesus Flores all 2007, and he had never played above A ball either.