Sunday History - Corey Smith

There seems to be a bit of unrest amongst fans about Adam Miller’s continuing injury problems. I sense there’s still a lot of faith in his ability, but there’s this lingering feeling of doom that he’ll never be healthy enough to contribute. This brings back memories of the last can’t miss prospect that the Indians developed in their system. That player is Corey Smith.

Corey Smith was the Indians first round draft pick in 2000, taken 26th overall. A shortstop from New Jersey, he was moved to third base immediately upon signing. Before the draft, Baseball America had an interesting scouting report on him, saying that “his talent is universally acknowledged” but that he was never really gushed over. He performed well in the summer Area Code League, which is basically an all-star series of games for high school juniors that uses wood bats. He played well in his high school season, but BA said he “did not play like one of the nation’s best high school seniors.” One thing not mentioned but probably factored in is that it was difficult to figure out how much of his high school performance was Smith’s skills and how much was the weaker competition that is in New Jersey. Entering the draft, BA rated Smith the 19th best player, so the Indians got good value at 26.

Smith quickly signed for approximately slot value, getting a bonus not out of line with those around him. He was assigned to the Indians Appy league team in Burlington, where he did okay, hitting .256, showing a decent eye and some power potential, but striking out 50 times in 207 at bats, while being adventurous at third base.

Despite this mixed start, Smith was rated the Indians’ 3rd best prospect in 2001, falling behind a future Cy Young Award winner and another player who has had a successful major league career in Danys Baez. BA acknowledged his struggles at Burlington, primarily defensively, but still projected him as a four tool third baseman (power, average, strong arm and glovework, they did not feel he would be fast). They described him as a hard worker who is receptive to instruction.

Smith moved to Sally league team Columbus in 2001. His performance there was quite good for a 19 year old - .260 with 18 homers and 26 doubles. However, he struck out 149 times in 500 at bats, against only 37 walks, while committing 45 errors at third base. However, following Sabathia’s and Baez’ graduation to the majors, he was rated the #1 prospect in the Indians organization by Baseball America, who were effusive in their praise, again noting his work ethic, makeup, passion for the game and willingness to listen. They saw him as a potential franchise cornerstone, while seemingly glossing over his glaring weaknesses. Baseball Prospectus, which was even more performance driven in 2002 than it is now, noted his weaknesses more than they noted his potential, and were sour on him.

Smith’s 2002 season was not good at all. He moved to the Carolina league as a 20 year old and struggled. He hit .255, but while his plate discipline increased, his power decreased. His defense was slightly better, his errors decreased to 34. He slid out of Baseball America’s top 10 prospects, falling to 11th. Baseball Prospectus continued to be unimpressed.

Despite struggling in 2002, the Indians moved Smith to Akron to start 2003 as a 21 year old. Yet again, his power decreased. His walks stayed the same, while his strikeouts shrunk dramatically. His defense deteriorated further, as his errors jumped to 44. For the first time, however, Baseball Prospectus saw him in a positive light, feeling he was ready to put his newfound contact ability back with his previous power exploits. Baseball America continued to sour, dropping Smith to the #13 prospect in the organization, and returning to what they said when Smith was a high schooler – that his talent was acknowledged but never raved about. Prospect maven John Sickels was also unimpressed.

Finally, Smith repeated a level in 2004, repeating Akron. There were slight improvements – he more than doubled his homers while increasing his walk rate. However, his strikeouts increased again, his errors hardly went down, and his batting average dropped by 22 points. In all, not the production expected from a repeat of the level. Finally, the organization moved him to the outfield during instructional league. In the offseason, the Indians traded Smith to the Padres in a challenge trade for one of San Diego’s failing prospects, Jake Gautreau. Baseball America did not list Smith among the Padres top 30 prospects, despite ranking San Diego’s system the 27th best in baseball. After one year at AA Mobile with the Padres, Smith spent 2006 with Birmingham, the White Sox AA associate. He then left organized baseball.

Is there a lesson here? I think there is. If you look at everything that was said about Smith, you don’t see where he could have gone wrong. He had the tools, he listened, he worked hard. He had weaknesses, but he addressed them. But there were other things there.

Foremost, the Indians were probably overaggressive in promoting Smith. Three straight years he kept advancing through the system despite not actually thriving at any level. Second, his defensive issues at third base almost certainly affected his development with the bat. In the minors, there’s generally the belief that you keep a player at the more challenging defensive position until he proves unable to handle it. Smith kept trying to prove he couldn’t handle it, but the Indians kept him at third base. I wonder if Smith had moved to left field for the 2002 season if things might have turned out happier. Third, there seemed to be conflicting messages to Smith from year to year. In 2002 his walks go up, his power goes down. In 2003 his strikeouts go down, his average goes up, but his power goes down. In 2004, his power back up, his walks up, his average well down. It really appears as if each year he was given a different thing to work on, to the detriment of other aspects of his offensive game.

Potential is wonderful, but if the guy has a beautiful swing that he doesn’t make contact with, it doesn’t really matter. This is often the great dilemma, especially with cold state players. They don’t play as long or as often as players in Florida, Texas or California, so they tend to lag behind developmentally. A certain amount of projection is necessary to determine what the players are capable of. At some point, however, the player has to actually produce. And that might be the great lesson from Corey Smith.