The Fifth Spot

It has been rather firmly established in both this space and in the various media that the fifth spot is a race between Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers. Both have had their moments, at times looking good, at times looking bad. In Lee's last start, ESPN, who was broadcasting the game, aired a graphic in which they projected Aaron Laffey to the be the fifth starter in the rotation. I think a number of Indians fans also feel that the spot is Laffey's to lose.

The fifth spot in the rotation is Cliff Lee's to lose. If Lee and another candidate all do equally well, Lee will get the position. If all three candidates struggle, Lee will get the position. The only way Lee doesn't get the position is if he struggles in his next couple of times out (including today, broadcast on STO) while either Laffey or Sowers is lights out in his next couple of starts. In that instance, it would be hard to justify beginning the season with Lee in the rotation.

There are many reasons for the rather bold proclamation I am making here. The first justification I will give is not at all convincing on it's own, but is an underlying element in the remainder of the arguments. It's a justification that you heard John Kruk give if you watched Lee's start on ESPN. Cliff Lee is a Proven Major Leaguer. Lee won 46 games from 2004-2006. He finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2005. On it's own, a poor argument. This Indians team is concerned with what a particular player can do to help the team win in 2008, not what he did to help the 2005 team win.

Cliff Lee signed an extension in 2006. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Lee's raises begin kicking in this season, as he's due to make $2.75M. While this front office staff is better than previous staffs at determining a sunk cost and biting the bullet on it, there's an obvious desire to, ceteris peribus, play the guy who is making three times as much as the other two combined. Furthermore, it's a valid question of whether or not Lee truly is a sunk cost at this point in his career.

There is the valid question of what to do with Lee if he does not win the rotation battle. He has an option left, but the general assumption is that if Lee were to be optioned, he would be generally malcontented, and perhaps a distraction for the Buffalo team. If optioning him is not an option, the Indians would be forced to look to trade him or waive him, neither of which is terribly appealing. His trade value is at its absolute lowest, and the Indians would be fortunate to even get a C prospect for him. Meanwhile, cutting him is unappealing as it would mean the Indians would be on the hook for his contract when it has not been firmly established that he can no longer produce.

In baseball culture, it's assumed that young players coming up will be subject to being demoted to the minor leagues even though that player might be the best choice for a particular position. Some would argue that Ben Francisco might fit this argument this season, feeling he'd be better to keep on the Indians than David Dellucci or Jason Michaels. The young player is expected to feel disappointed, but to get over it and continue to work on his game. Meanwhile, should this injustice be perpetrated on a Veteran Player, it's humiliating. The inference is that Laffey and Sowers would be far more understanding of their demotion than Lee.

From a more practical standpoint, let's say that Lee wins the fifth spot in the rotation and performs adequately. He's not lights out, but he's giving the team production that's serviceable from a back end of the rotation guy. Meanwhile, the Indians are in a tight race with the Tigers for the Central lead, and with the Yankees and Red Sox for the Wild Card race. Dellucci and Michaels are providing inadequate production as a left field platoon, or one of the other Indians starters have gotten hurt. In this instance, both Sowers and Laffey will have far more trade value in midseason than Lee would, simply because they will be a) cheaper and b) under the other's teams control for longer. If either young pitcher is throwing great ball in Buffalo, his trade value goes through the roof, so much so that his value to the 2008 Indians team is greater as a trade chit than as a pitcher on the team.

Lastly, there's the argument that Lee's ceiling is the highest of the three pitchers. Neither Sowers nor Laffey are particularly viewed as more than a solid #3 starter, the sort that will give you 200 innings of above average ball. Meanwhile, let's not forget that Cliff Lee, in 2005, pitched 200 innings with a 3.79 ERA, going 18-5, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting. Lee isn't even 30 yet. He still has four good pitches, his fastball still gets up there in the 90s. He hasn't been reduced by injury. He wasn't abused as a young pitcher. Lee could still be capable of being that pitcher, and that pitcher would almost certainly be capable of pushing the Indians ahead of the Tigers, Yankees or Red Sox in what looks like will be a phenomenal battle this season.

Unrelated to baseball, good luck to the Cleveland State Vikings as they strive to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the fabled Sweet Sixteen team of 1986. You can watch them take on heavily favored Butler in the Horizon League finals tonight on ESPN at 9PM